“What goes up MUST come down”– Isaac Newton
The real facts about the performance of the economy have been shrouded by the euphoria surrounding the Q4 GDP growth of 1.92%. The truth is that the GDP growth is anaemic and way below the annual population increase of 2.6%.
More disturbing is that the positive growth trend is submerged by the consistent rise in unemployment and underemployment rate, now 40%.
Therefore, the context of this positive development must be taken together with its limited impact on the citizen’s wellbeing.
As the election draws near and the incumbent prepares his re-election agenda, we are likely to see a much more aggressive implementation strategy by policymakers.
In this month’s edition of the LBS Executive Breakfast Session, we take a contrarian view of the cyclical trend of growth and oil revenues. Bismarck Rewane and the FDC Think Tank analyze the unlikely possibility of oil price falling below $30pb, and a global trade war.
Does Nigeria have the institutional framework to mitigate the risks associated with such remotely possible events? Furthermore, what will the impact of this low oil price be in your sector, company and personal consumption?
Outline:
- February at a Glance
- The Global Picture
- Domestic Performance & Market Proxies
- Stock Market & Sector Update
- Policy Response
- What if Oil Prices Crash Again? Scenario Analysis
- Summary & Outlook
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