Overview of GDP in Quarter One 2017
In the first quarter of 2017, the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by –0.52% (year-on-year) in real terms, representing the fifth consecutive quarter of contraction since Q1 2016. This is 0.15% higher than the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016 (revised to –0.67% from –0.36%) and higher by 1.21% points from rate recorded in the preceding quarter, (revised to –1.73% from –1.30%). Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was –12.92%
During the quarter, aggregate GDP stood at N26,028,356.03 million in nominal terms, compared to N22,235,315.29 million in Q1 2016, resulting in a Nominal GDP growth of 17.06%. This growth was higher relative to growth recorded in Q1 2016 (11.39%).
The Nigerian economy can be more clearly understood when classified into oil and non-oil sectors (Figure 1):
The Oil Sector
During the period under review, Oil production averaged at 1.83million barrels per day (mbpd), 0.07million barrels higher than the daily average production recorded in the fourth quarter of 2016. Oil production during the quarter was lower by 0.22million barrels per day relative to the corresponding quarter in 2016, which recorded an output of 2.05mbpd. (Figure2) Note oil output for March 2017 is estimated and is therefore subject to revisions.
Real growth of the oil sector slowed by –11.64% (year-on-year) in Q1 2017. This represents a decline of (–4.81%) relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016. Growth declined by 6.83% and increased 6.06% when compared to Q1 2016 and Q4 2016 respectively. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector grew by 14.86% in the first quarter of 2017.
As a share of the economy, the Oil sector contributed 8.90% of total real GDP in Q1 2017, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2016 and up from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 10.02% and 6.75% respectively.
Please note that the data for crude oil production for the four quarters of 2016 (Q1-Q4, 2016) are revised figures. This revision has also affected GDP figures for the same period.
The Non-Oil Sector
Growth in the Non-oil sector was largely driven by the activities in the Agriculture Sector(Crop Production), Information & Communication, Manufacturing, Transportation and Other Services. The non-oil sector grew by 0.72% in real terms during the reference quarter.
This was 1.05 % higher than the rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2016, and 0.90 % higher than the corresponding quarter of 2016 (See Figure 3). In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 91.10% to the nation’s GDP, higher from share recorded in the first quarter of 2016 (89.98%) but lower than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2016 (93.25%).