Beans Spike by 18% to N26,000

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Commodity prices have maintained their upward trajectory this week with further spikes in the price of Garri and Beans. Garri has increased by 23% to N32, 000 while beans has increased by 18% to N26,000.

Oil prices continue to trend downwards to $49.24pb, despite news of severed relationships between four Arab nations and Qatar. On the bright side, Forcados terminal is set to resume operations thereby increasing Nigeria’s oil production by approximately 300,000bpd.

Burning Economic Issues

  • Oil price falls to $49.25pb
  • 4 Arab oil countries cut diplomatic ties with Qatar
  • Forcados terminal to resume with capacity of 300,000 bpd
  • NSE market cap. reaches an 11-month high of N11.2trn
  • NAFEX window attracts over $1bn deals in the past 6 weeks
  • Naira appreciates to N370/$, NAFEX at N378/$
  • Diesel remains flat at N180/ltr

Economic News

The Good

  • Oil production expected to increase to support external reserves
  • Forcados pipeline will improve power (associated gas)

The Bad

  • Spot oil price getting close to benchmark
  • Delay in budget signing could impede growth
  • Power output declines to 3,345MW/hr (down 289MW)
  • Garri up by 23% on herdsmen attack on cassava farms
  • Beans prices spike on fasting & seasonal effects

Power Generation analysis & Impact

  • June 4th: Average power output was 3,345MWh/hour (down 289MWh/h)
  • 2,895MW lost from gas, line and high frequency constraints
  • Estimated loss: N1.39m (annualised at N500.4bn /$1.25m)
  • Increasing high frequency constraints due to grid indiscipline
  • Affecting generation at Afam VI, Jebba and Shiroro

Domestic Commodity Prices Movement


Stock Market

  • NSE ASI 3.85% to 32,578.38pts
  • Positive sentiment drives market performance

Oil prices

  • Brent crude 2.73% to $49.25pb
  • As US leaves the Paris climate agreement
  • Global production levels continue to cap gains from oil prices
  • US oil output has surged to 9.3mb over the past 8 months
  • Cut in ties between 4 Arab nations and Qatar

Oil markets today


Outlook – Oil Prices

  • Paris agreement means more shale oil
  • Oil price volatility to continue
  • Middle East crisis could deteriorate

Outlook – Agric Prices

Grains 

  • Market expected to trade bullish as weather conditions are expected to drive market sentiment

Soft

Sugar

  • Expectations of a bullish sugar market to persist on lower global output

Cocoa

  • Cocoa price to edge higher as Ivory Coast farmers neglect plantation

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