Budget Underperformance By The Month

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The CBN’s latest monthly Economic Report (for November) confirms much of the newsflow and official commentary on the public finances. For the 12 months to November, the FGN saw retained revenue of N4.37trn and spent a total of N5.78trn, resulting in a deficit of N1.41trn.

The report shows the monthly budget targets, which, annualized, amount to revenue of N5.39trn, expenditure of N7.75trn and a deficit of N2.36trn. The habitual slippage with the budget process means that the 2017 budget year started late, and is still running.

  • There was marked underperformance on receipts from the federation account. The monthly budget of N298bn was not once achieved in the period although from the report’s appendices we can detect an improvement from mid-year in line with the recovery of oil production/decline in sabotage.
  • The monthly budget for the FGN’s share of VAT receipts of N22bn was only once achieved (in May). GDP growth has been short of the budget assumption. Additionally, we suspect that the authorities set too high a target for improvements in coverage, having decided against hiking the standard rate.
  • These shortfalls were balanced in part by a very strong collection of average other revenue of N161bn, compared with the budget target of N63bn. Separate data from the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation show an impressive take from exchange-rate differences, transfers to the Consolidated Revenue Fund and special distributions in H1.

Sources: CBN; FBNQuest Capital Research
  • The FGN’s deficit over the 12 months was far lower than the target because it only started its capital spending last year in October. Capital releases have since picked up strongly (and still in the 2017 budget year).

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