At 40.9, the Global Consumer Confidence Index for July is up 0.9 points from last month. The past month’s increase is the first positive global growth since January 2020. Last month’s data suggested that, at a global level, consumer confidence appeared to be bottoming out; the incremental progress observed this month confirms this pattern.
However, the index is currently 7.8 points below its pre-pandemic level of January and almost three points lower than at any time since its creation in March 2010.
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of each of the 24 world markets’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 across 24 countries, conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform.
Between June and July, Argentina (-2.6) and Saudi Arabia (-1.5) are the only countries to show a significant drop in their National Index. This is in stark contrast to last month when 12 of the 24 countries showed a drop of at least 1.5 points.
This month, nine of the 24 countries show a growth of 1.5 points or more in thein National index, including Australia* (+3.0), Canada (+2.7), Poland (+2.4) Sweden (+2.4), China (+2.3), Russia (+1.9), Belgium (+1.8), Italy (+1.8), and Germany (+1.7).
Furthermore, the Expectations Index, reflective of consumers’ outlook on their local economy, financial situation and employment, shows an uptick over last month (+2.5) to 51.5.
It is up significantly in 18 of 24 countries and only down significantly in Argentina (-1.6). Similarly to the National index, this is the first positive growth seen since January 2020.
*Note: the July data was collected before the state of Victoria in Australia went back into lockdown due to a new spike of coronavirus.
National Index Trends
Compared to January, every single country’s National Index is down with the sole exception of China (+0.1). The National Index is down by more than 10 points in five countries (Brazil, India, the United States, Mexico, and Israel) and by five to 10 points in 15 other countries.
- While 11 of the 24 countries surveyed had a National Index higher than 50 back in January, this is now the case in only two countries: China (69.7) and Saudi Arabia (59.0).
- At the other end of the spectrum, seven countries now have a National Index below 35, as compared to just one (Turkey) in January: Argentina (34.9), Mexico (33.6), Spain (33.2), Japan (32.9), Russia (31.9), South Africa (30.5), and Turkey (30.3)
Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends
At a global level, while the Expectations Index is up significantly compared to last month, the Jobs Index and the Investment Index remained relatively flat from last month, increasing by only 0.3 and 0.6 points respectively.
- The Jobs Index (46.7), indicative of confidence in job security and the employment outlook, is showing six countries with significant gains this month (compared to none last month) and is down by more than 1.5 points in only five countries (compared to 14 last month). It is flat in the majority of countries (13).
- The Investment Index (34.5), indicative of the investment climate, is up significantly in seven countries: China (+2.7), Australia (+2.6), Belgium (+2.5), Russia (+2.4), Poland (+2.2), Canada (+2,1), and Germany (+1.5), while it is significantly down in only three countries: Argentina (-2.7), Saudi Arabia (-1.9), and Hungary (-1.7). Last month there were 15 countries with significant drops.