In 2017, the Nigerian economy recovered from its recessionary trend as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth bounced back into the positive territory from -0.9% in the first quarter to 0.72% and 1.4% in the second and third quarters, respectively.
The year also saw improvements, albeit modest, in key economic indicators such as inflation, which closed the year at 16% from 18.6% in December 2016; external reserves, which rose to over US$38 billion and exchange rate, which remained relatively stable during the year.
In addition, Nigeria recorded significant improvement in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business ranking, moving up 24 places to 145th from 169th in the previous year. Whilst these achievements are laudable, key socio-economic indicators did not fare well.
For instance, the latest report of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that unemployment and underemployment rate rose from 35.2% in 2016Q4 to 40% as at 2017 Q3, implying that over 4 million Nigerians lost their jobs in the same period. Likewise, over 85 million Nigerians lived below the national poverty line, even as Nigeria remains in the category of countries with low Human Development Indicators (HDI), according to the World Bank’s HDI Report.
This points to one fundamental fact that Nigeria’s economic growth needs to be inclusive to provide employment opportunities and lift millions out of poverty.
Considering the urgent need to address the apparent dilapidating socio-economic fabric of the Nigerian state, the NESG’s Macroeconomic Outlook Report for 2018emphasises the need for Nigeria to set a sustainable path in achieving inclusive growth and development in 2018 and beyond.
In setting out key policy directions towards achieving this goal, the report examines three pillars of inclusive growth and proposes policy measures to achieve broad-based and sustained growth in 2018 and beyond. In addition to a macroeconomic review of the Nigerian economy in 2017, this report provides a forecast for key economic variables premised on plausible economic dynamics in 2018.
Finally, the report examines government policies, events, and interventions that would shape economic outcomes in 2018. This report is unique in the sense that it introduces a Policy Efficiency variable, which examines the efficacy of the Nigerian government to implement the proposed reforms that will lead to inclusive growth.
