Nigeria Global Markets Daily Update (November 15, 2017)

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Money markets
The overnight and OBB rates dipped to 13.42% and 12.17% from 19.75% and 17.83%, as the system anticipates an NGN152.15bn inflow from the OMO maturity tomorrow. We expect rates to remain low today but inch up into the close of the week as liquidity leaves the system via debit for the T-bill auction tomorrow.

Interbank spot: USD/NGN

Activity in the NIFEX market has remained muted, with the CBN being the major supplier of liquidity. NAFEX trade volumes slid to US$86.99m. The exchange rate
has remained stable, spurring interest in the Nigerian fixed income and equity markets. We expect the pair to continue to trade in the 360-362 range in the short term.

Offer rates 13-Nov 14-Nov Change
NIFEX 329.87 329.62 0.25
NAFEX 359.91 359.84 0.07

Fixed Income
The fixed income market saw demand on maturities across the curve following mixed sentiments the previous day. Short-term yields fell by an average of 72bp, with significant interest in the 1-year region. Similar sentiments prevailed in the FGN bond space, particularly on the Mar-36s and April-37s on the back of sustained interest from local institutional investors.

The T-bill auction is scheduled for tomorrow and on offer are NGN32.44bn, NGN22.82bn, NGN64.68n of the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day bonds respectively. We expect stop rates to range between 13.10%-13.20%, 15.20%-15.40% and 15.50%-15.70% for the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day papers respectively.

We expect to see some profit-taking at the short end of the curve as we head into the auction, while bond yields should remain close to prevailing levels as attention remains fixed largely on the T-bill space.

Tenor 13-Nov 14-Nov Change (bp)
91-day 16.84 16.39           (0.45)
182-day 19.40 19.09           (0.31)
364-day 17.40 16.00           (1.40)
Jun-19 15.15 15.03           (0.12)
Feb-20 14.88 14.85           (0.03)
Jul-21 15.01 14.97           (0.04)
Jan-22 14.68 14.67           (0.01)
Mar-24 14.92 14.85           (0.07)
Jan-26 15.05 15.03           (0.02)
Mar-27 15.18 15.05           (0.13)
Jul-34 14.89 14.81           (0.08)
Mar-36 14.91 14.78           (0.13)
Apr-37 14.94 14.81           (0.13)

Commodities
Crude took a step back now that 2018 isn’t looking so hot anymore. Futures tumbled as much as 2.8% in New York, the biggest decline in more than a month, after touching 2015-highs last week. Hopes that a potential extension of OPEC’s supply curbs will help support the market next year were tempered on Tuesday when the International Energy Agency said that recent price gains along with milder-than-normal winter weather are slowing demand growth.

Current rate (%)   Current
LIBOR 30-day 1.25028 Brent Crude US$ 63.06
NIBOR 30-day 17.7863 NAFEX (Offer rate) 361.50
NIBOR 90-day 20.1693 Reserves (as at 06 Nov 2017) US$33.31bn

RMB Nigeria indicative term deposit rates1

NGN CALL 1-m 2-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
50,000,000 5.00% 11.50% 13.00% 14.00% 15.00% 16.00%
USD1 CALL 1-m 2-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
5,000,000 0.50% 1.20% 1.30% 1.40% 1.50% 1.80%

Note: 1. Indicative rates are gross of withholding tax (10%)
RMB Nigeria Note: The deposit placement is subject to the completion of onboarding forms (KYC) for RMB Nigeria, a compliance requirement from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Currencies available on request: ZAR/EUR/GBP.
International rating – RMB Nigeria is a wholly owned subsidiary of the FirstRand Bank [BB+ /Baa3] S&P and Moody’s respectively.

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