NIGERIA GLOBAL MARKETS DAILY UPDATE (NOVEMBER 17, 2017)

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Money markets

The overnight and OBB rates dropped to 6.17% and 6.67% from 11.33% and 10.17% respectively, as the system remains fairly liquid. We expect rates to inch up today as the market anticipates yet another retail SMIS auction.

Interbank spot: USD/NGN

Activity in the NIFEX market has remained muted, the CBN being the major supplier of liquidity. NAFEX trade volumes slid to US$86.99m. The exchange rate has remained stable, spurring interest in the Nigerian fixed income and equity markets. We expect the pair to continue to trade in the 360-362 range in the short term.

Offer rates 15-Nov 16-Nov Change
NIFEX 329.75 329.87 0.12
NAFEX 360.08 359.88 0.20

Fixed Income

The fixed income market saw demand weaken on most maturities, following bullish sentiments earlier this week. Yields rose at the short end of the curve due, in part, to profittaking on long positions opened earlier in the week as well as positioning for higher funding costs expected into the close of the business week.

The FGN bond space also saw yields inch marginally higher on the day, due largely to some profit-taking at the long end of the curve. We expect to see yields trend further north on maturities in the T-bill space, as funding considerations trigger a selloff at the short end of the curve. Bonds are expected to close the week around current levels, as supply and demand seem evenly matched.

Tenor 15-Nov 16-Nov Change (bp)
91-day 16.36 16.36              –
182-day 18.62 18.70             0.08
364-day 15.99 16.11             0.12
Jun-19 14.95 14.87            (0.08)
Feb-20 14.79 14.88             0.09
Jul-21 15.05 15.07             0.02
Jan-22 14.71 14.71              –
Mar-24 14.80 14.81             0.01
Jan-26 15.00 14.99            (0.01)
Mar-27 15.00 15.02             0.02
Jul-34 14.74 14.75             0.01
Mar-36 14.74 14.75             0.01
Apr-37 14.74 14.75             0.01
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Commodities

Oil slid toward US$60/bbl, as traders, once certain OPEC and Russia would extend their output cuts beyond March, are less so now. Futures dropped 0.4% in New York after falling 2.5% the previous two sessions. OPEC hasn’t yet convinced Russia that it’s necessary to reach an agreement to extend oil-output cuts at a meeting in Vienna this month. US crude inventories expanded for a second week, while output climbed a fourth time to 9.65 million barrels a day – the highest in more than three decades, government data showed.

  Current rate (%)   Current
LIBOR 30-day 1.26350 Brent Crude US$ 61.88
NIBOR 30-day 17.4957 NAFEX (Offer rate) 361.50
NIBOR 90-day 19.9197 Reserves (as at 06 Nov 2017) US$33.31bn

RMB Nigeria indicative term deposit rates1

NGN CALL 1-m 2-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
50,000,000 5.00% 11.50% 13.00% 14.00% 15.00% 16.00%
USD1 CALL 1-m 2-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
5,000,000 0.50% 1.20% 1.30% 1.40% 1.50% 1.80%

Note: 1. Indicative rates are gross of withholding tax (10%)
RMB Nigeria Note: The deposit placement is subject to the completion of on-boarding forms (KYC) for RMB Nigeria, a compliance requirement from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Currencies available on request: ZAR/EUR/GBP.
International rating – RMB Nigeria is a wholly owned subsidiary of the FirstRand Bank [BB+ /Baa3] S&P and Moody’s respectively.