Nigeria In 2050: Demographic Dividend or Crisis?


By 2050, global population is projected to hit a staggering 9.8billion, 2.2 billion above the current 7.6 billion. Africa will add more than 1.0billion to the increase (driven by Nigeria, DRC, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda) compared to Asia (+0.7billion).

However, Nigeria will contribute the highest share, projected to become the 3rd most populous by 2050 (close to 1.0billion by 2100) amid high fertility rate (5.5/woman), poor birth control mechanism and wobbly development plan.

For Nigeria, the more compelling observation is that the population structure will remain broadly the same over the next 30 years. This suggests that a half of the population will remain youthful (below 35 years), similar to the last 40 years.

Accordingly, Nigeria is on the verge of benefiting from a potential demographic dividend inherent in its youthful population, if channeled into productive investment in physical and human capital over the next 30 years. This can be further enhanced by a strategic birth control policy. However, a demographic crisis looms if nothing is done!



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