Nigeria In 2050: Demographic Dividend or Crisis?


By 2050, global population is projected to hit a staggering 9.8billion, 2.2 billion above the current 7.6 billion. Africa will add more than 1.0billion to the increase (driven by Nigeria, DRC, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda) compared to Asia (+0.7billion).

However, Nigeria will contribute the highest share, projected to become the 3rd most populous by 2050 (close to 1.0billion by 2100) amid high fertility rate (5.5/woman), poor birth control mechanism and wobbly development plan.

Nigeria In 2050: Demographic Dividend or Crisis? - Brand Spur

For Nigeria, the more compelling observation is that the population structure will remain broadly the same over the next 30 years. This suggests that a half of the population will remain youthful (below 35 years), similar to the last 40 years.

Accordingly, Nigeria is on the verge of benefiting from a potential demographic dividend inherent in its youthful population, if channeled into productive investment in physical and human capital over the next 30 years. This can be further enhanced by a strategic birth control policy. However, a demographic crisis looms if nothing is done!