The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) report released by NOIPolls for Q4, 2018 has revealed a 3.5-point increase in the CCI to stand at 64-points in Q4, 2018 from the 60.2-points obtained in Q3, 2018. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their present and future economic prospects. The increase in the CCI suggests that the spending pattern of Nigerian households increased in Q4, 2018.
Furthermore, the Present Situation Index (PSI) declined while the Expectation Index (EI) experienced an increase and these are the two variables that make up the CCI. The PSI declined by 3.4-points from the results obtained in Q3, 2018 to stand at 38.3 -points in Q4, 2018, contrarily, the EI increased by 7.0-points from the 84.2 points obtained in Q3, 2018 to stand at 91.2-points.
These are the key highlights from the Q4, 2018 Portfolio of Indices.
In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country.
Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw a conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behaviour, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria.
This report presents the Q4, 2018 results for the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).
THE NOIPOLLS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI)
The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Q4, 2018 experienced an increase of 3.5-points to stand at 64-points indicating that the spending pattern of citizens increased in this quarter perhaps due to the Christmas holidays. The last quarter of every year is full of- various activities, social events and travels due to the festivities, so it can be inferred that most Nigerians spend more on goods and services in this quarter.
The figure below shows the two variables that make up the NOIPolls’ Consumer Confidence Index; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI). The Present Situation Index (PSI) which measures the current perception of consumers regarding their propensity to spend stood at 37.2-points in Q4, 2018. Also, the Expectation Index which is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future, stood at 84.4-points in the same quarter.
There are 7 variables that comprise the PSI and EI, and 5 of these variables experienced an increase except for the current economic situation index and current prices of goods and services index which experienced a decline. These are highlighted below;
Current Economic Situation Index – 38.3
The Current Economic Situation Index decreased by 3.4-points to stand at 38.3-points in Q4, 2018 compared to the 41.7-points obtained in Q3, 2018.
Expectation of the Country’s Economic Situation Index –91.7
This index experienced an increase of 7-points to stand at 91.2-points in Q4 2018, signifying an increase in consumers’ confidence on the improvement of the economic situation in the country.
Current Employment Condition Index – 53
The Current Employment Situation index increased by 1.4-points to stand at 53 in Q4, 2018 as opposed to the 51.6 gotten in Q3, 2018.
Expected Employment Condition Index – 97.6
The Expected Employment Condition Index increased by 4.7-points to stand at 97.6-points against the 92.9-points in Q3, 2018.
Current Prices of Goods and Services Index – 21.3
The Current Prices of Goods and Services also experienced a decline of 10.7-points from the 31.9 points of Q3, 2018 to stand at 21.3-points in Q4, 2018.
Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index – 76.9
The Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index experienced the second highest increase of 12.7-points to stand at 76.9-points in Q4, 2018 from the 64.2-points for Q3, 2018.
Expected Total Family Income Index – 59.0
The Expected Total Family Income Index experienced the highest increase of 13 points to stand at 72.1-points in Q4 2018 which was 59-points in Q3, 2018
Trend analysis revealed that the CCI, PSI and the EI all decreased compared to results obtained in Q4, 2018.
In conclusion, findings show that Consumer Confidence Index increased by 3.5-points in Q4, 2018 to stand at 64-points compared to the result obtained Q3, 2018. Although the CCI helps in measuring the degree of optimism consumers have about the economic situation, it is worthy to note that consumers may exaggerate certain aspects of the economy. Therefore, concerned stakeholders are always advised to monitor the Consumer Confidence Index with caution especially in unstable economies as economic activities can change unexpectedly.