2019 Election: A Run-off or a Landslide

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The outcome of the forthcoming general election will be the highlight of events in Nigeria and perhaps Africa this year. Without being oblivious of the fact that elections would be conducted across the three tiers of government, much attention will be on the presidential polls with spotlights on the ruling party’s President Muhammadu Buhari and PDP’s Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as the major gladiators in the race.

2019 Election: A Run-off or a Landslide - Brand Spur

If the last two governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun State is anything to go by, there are indications that the 2019 general election may be a very close contest. A glance at election results from 1999 to 2015 shows that the PDP’s popularity slumped from an average of 63% (1999-2011) to 45% in 2015 amid widespread corruption allegations and unprecedented levels of insecurity. This gave way for the APC, a coalition of former ACN, ANPP, CPC and some aggrieved members of the PDP (nPDP), in 2015.

On the other side, while the ability of the APC to leverage the power of incumbency in the 2019 election remains at large, we note that recent political developments in the country, notably the defection of key members of the PDP faction from APC back to PDP, suggests that the outcome of the election is too close to call.

 

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United Capital Research