President Buhari’s 2nd Term and the Nigerian Economy

President Buhari’s 2nd Term and the Nigerian Economy

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With the INEC’s declaration of President Buhari as the winner of the 2019 Presidential election, uncertainties around the outcome polls are expected to clear off in a matter of days. This will be more apparent once the major opposition candidate comes to terms with the reality of the outcome of the polls.

Accordingly, we expect the administration to build on its economic recovery and growth plan. Over the next four years, our outlook for the Nigerian economy is positive but modest.

We expect the administration to continue to invest in infrastructure, sustain its welfare scheme, retain the structure of the oil & gas sector and retain its intervention programs across the Agric, Power and SME space. As such, we expect the budget to remain large but broadly financed by borrowings. Also, the private sector’s ability to drive the economy may remain curtailed in the absence of far-reaching and liberal policies. This may keep domestic/foreign investment low and output growth soft.

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Furthermore, we imagine the possible sustenance of the current fixed/multiple FX regimes by the CBN, considering the President’s stance on a strong currency. Finally, the tenor of the current CBN governor, who has maintained a tight monetary stance since 2016, may or may not be renewed.

 

UNITED CAPITAL RESEARCH

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