Japan is one of two countries to exhibit trade growth


  • Japan and UK are the only two countries
    forecasted to see trade growth among countries surveyed by the DHL Global Trade
  • Ocean trade spurred by imports of Basic Raw
    Materials and exports of Industrial Raw Materials contribute to positive
    outlook for Japan’s economy
  • Despite contraction in certain sectors, trade is
    positively influenced by investments in Tokyo 2020 Games and trade deals with
    emerging markets

TOKYO, JAPAN – Media OutReach – 3 October 2019 – Robust
ocean imports of Basic Raw Materials and exports of Industrial Raw Materials
will be the main contributor to positive trade growth in Japan over the next two
months, according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL,
the world’s leading logistics company.


The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early
indicator of global trade developments calculated using artificial intelligence
and big data analytics, shows that Japan’s trade growth for the period
September to November 2019 will increase by three points to 53, a positive sign
of the country’s economic health. Along with the UK, it has the highest growth
prospects of all seven countries surveyed due to its solid ocean trade data,
which more than makes up for a mildly weakening outlook for air trade.


 “Japan isn’t completely unscathed
by the current uncertainties plaguing the global economy and trade,” said
Charles Kaufmann, CEO North Asia South Pacific, DHL Global Forwarding and President/Representative
Director, DHL Global Forwarding Japan K.K. “Nevertheless, encouraging figures reveal a solid ocean trade outlook that
alludes to the country’s ongoing progress, especially in infrastructure investments related to the upcoming Tokyo
2020 Olympic Games that’s evident from the robust trade of Basic and
Industrial Raw Materials. The government is also actively fostering trade relations
including the recent trade deal
with the US, and engagements such as the Tokyo
International Conference on African Development
. It’s a sure sign of
Japan’s global influence as a mature economy, one with world-class strengths in
tried-and-tested industries like automotive, manufacturing, machinery and


world trade outlook

The Barometer’s results also suggest that world
trade remains at a crossroads and will further lose momentum over the next two
months, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous quarter. The current
decline is triggered solely by a drop in air trade, with global ocean trade
outlook remaining stable. All seven nations surveyed reveal indexes below 50
points except for Japan and the UK, where the Barometer forecasts a positive
growth momentum for the two economies at 53 points respectively. In the Global
Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth,
while values below 50 indicate contraction.


“Worldwide, trade conflicts continue to smoulder and geopolitical
tensions are causing uncertainty. Against
this backdrop, global trade continues to develop surprisingly well. Although
the DHL Global Trade Barometer has further decreased — with an index value of
47 points –world trade is still closer to staying at its high level,” Tim
Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said. “This strengthens our
conviction that globalization will go on and that logistics will remain its key
enabler in the future.”


Impact of US-Chinese tensions reflected in their
own results

trade conflict between China and the US continues to simmer, resulting in an
overall subdued trade mood, with US and China accounting for the most negative
trade outlooks in September. It is expected that US trade will shrink further,
remaining in negative territory with 45 points, despite having climbed one
point since June. Both air and ocean trade prospects for US remain almost
unchanged compared to the previous update. The DHL Global Trade Barometer forecasts
a moderate decline for Chinese trade by four points to 45. The main driver
of this development is the weak performance of Chinese air trade which has
dropped significantly by eight points to 43 over the past three months.


About the
Global Trade Barometer

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade
Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and
future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics
data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence.


The indicator is published four times a year and
the next release date is scheduled for November 2019. For more information on
the DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/en/media-relations/specials/global-trade-barometer.html.


You can find the press release for download as
well as further information on dpdhl.com/pressreleases

DHL – The logistics company for the world

DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL family
of divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging from
national and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillment
solutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrial
supply chain management. With about 380,000 employees in more than 220
countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businesses
securely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutions
for growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences and
healthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporate
responsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL is
decisively positioned as “The logistics company for the world”.


DHL is
part of Deutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of more than 61
billion euros in 2018.