South Korea’s trade prospects continue its downward trend

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  • Air trade expected to decline by three points to
    40 on the DHL Global Trade Barometer Index
  • Imports of Industrial
    Raw Materials, Personal & Household Goods and Temperature or Climate
    Controlled goods via ocean freight to positively contribute to South Korea’s
    trade
  • DHL Global Trade Barometer forecasts a mild
    decline in world trade, with most country indexes revealing a downward trend

SEOUL KOREA – Media OutReach – 8 October 2019 – In the face of an overall
decrease in trade outlook and a three-point contraction in air trade, South
Korea’s ocean trade is set to buoy the country’s trade prospects over the next
three months, according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by
DHL, the world’s leading logistics company.

South Korea's trade prospects continue its downward trend - Brand Spur

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The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early
indicator of global trade developments calculated using artificial intelligence
and big data analytics, revealed that South Korea’s trade outlook is set to
decelerate to 45 points, below the threshold of 50 that indicates growth. Although
air imports will be sustained by domestic demand for Temperature or Climate
Controlled Goods, and Basic Raw Materials, air exports are expected to slow across
all industries. The outlook is more positive for ocean shipments, however, where
imports of Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods are forecasted to remain
stable, while Industrial Raw Materials and Personal & Household Goods are
expected to grow moderately.

 

“The results of this quarter’s index do not come
as a surprise, especially in light of the current trade climate and the lowering of South
Korea’s GDP forecast to 1.9% this year,” said SP Song, Managing Director, DHL
Global Forwarding Korea. “However, losses in some industries like semiconductors
and automotive manufacturing have been offset by strong gains in the trade
outlook for household goods and raw materials. These upward trends reflect the
government’s latest
fiscal measures introduced to increase domestic spending in 2020 by as much
as 8%, in order to drive job creation, improve welfare expansion, and invest in
R&D in areas like artificial intelligence, 5G networks and bio-health
services. Other than developing new growth drivers for Asia’s fourth-largest
economy, the government is also renewing
efforts
to deepen economic ties with ASEAN countries.”

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Forecast
for South Korea consistent with stagnating world trade outlook

The Barometer’s results also suggest that world
trade remains at a crossroads and will further lose momentum over the next two
months, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous quarter. The current
decline is triggered solely by a drop in air trade, with global ocean trade
outlook remaining stable. All seven nations surveyed reveal indexes below 50
points except for Japan and the UK, where the Barometer forecasts a positive
growth momentum for the two economies at 53 points each. In the Global Trade
Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while
values below 50 indicate contraction.

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“Worldwide, trade conflicts continue to smoulder and geopolitical
tensions are causing uncertainty. Against
this backdrop, global trade continues to develop surprisingly well. Although
the DHL Global Trade Barometer has further decreased — with an index value of
47 points –world trade is still closer to staying at its high level,” Tim
Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said. “This strengthens our
conviction that globalization will go on and that logistics will remain its key
enabler in the future.”

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Impact of US-Chinese tensions reflected in their
own results

The
trade conflict between China and the US continues to simmer, resulting in an
overall subdued trade mood, with US and China accounting for the most negative
trade outlooks in September. It is expected that US trade will shrink further,
remaining in negative territory with 45 points, despite having climbed a point
since June.

 

About the
Global Trade Barometer

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade
Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and
future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics
data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence.

The indicator is published four times a year and
the next release date is scheduled for November 2019. For more information on
the DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/en/media-relations/specials/global-trade-barometer.html.

DHL – The logistics company for the world

DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL family
of divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging from
national and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillment
solutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrial
supply chain management. With about 380,000 employees in more than 220
countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businesses
securely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutions
for growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences and
healthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporate
responsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL is
decisively positioned as “The logistics company for the world”.

 

DHL is
part of Deutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of more than 61
billion euros in 2018.

South Korea's trade prospects continue its downward trend - Brand Spur

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South Korea's trade prospects continue its downward trend - Brand SpurSouth Korea's trade prospects continue its downward trend - Brand Spur

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South Korea's trade prospects continue its downward trend - Brand SpurSouth Korea's trade prospects continue its downward trend - Brand Spur

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