- Imports of Basic & Industrial Raw Materials,
Chemicals & Products and Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods remain
positive - Rise in exports of Machinery Parts coincides
with growing focus on smart manufacturing and high-quality development
SHANGHAI, CHINA
– Media OutReach – 6
December 2019 – The DHL Global Trade Barometer
(GTB) indicates a further contraction in world
trade for the next three months, with China recording the weakest growth
outlook compared to all surveyed GTB countries. China’s ocean and air
imports in certain sectors[1]
look set to remain strong as domestic consumption drives the economy amidst an
overall decline in trade growth, according to data from the DHL Global Trade
Barometer released by DHL, the world’s leading logistics company.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator of global
trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data,
revealed that China’s trade index now stands at 42 points and therefore
indicates negative growth for the three months ending in January 2020. With three
points down from the previous quarter it’s the lowest result since the launch
of the GTB in January 2018. Although China’s Index value remains below 50[2]
— the threshold for net trade growth –imports for important sectors like Basic
Raw Materials and Chemicals & Products via air freight and Industrial Raw
Materials and Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods via ocean freight remain
strong, suggesting domestic consumption is responding positively to government
stimulus policy.
“This quarter’s index indicates that China’s trade growth
continues to decelerate, but also points to substantial strength in domestic
demand that has made up as much as
60% of China’s economic growth this year,” said Steve Huang, CEO, DHL
Global Forwarding Greater China. “Increases in air imports of raw materials and
ocean exports of machinery parts should offer cause for optimism amongst major
Chinese industries, coinciding with policy actions to upgrade
national manufacturing capabilities in preparation for Industry 4.0-related
demand. With economic growth still holding
at 6% in Q3 2019, China’s economy appears to have enjoyed significant
resilience even in the face of prolonged uncertain global trading conditions.”
Steady but mild decline negatively affects all
countries, except India
The Barometer’s results also suggest that world trade is
expected to continue at moderate pace but further contract for the next three
months, driven by minor decreases in both air and containerized ocean trade.
Against previous quarters this year, the downward trend in trade growth remains
mostly stable, neither indicating an acceleration of the decline nor a bottoming
out of contractionary movement. All seven nations monitored by the Barometer
received indexes below 50 points except for India, where the Barometer
forecasts moderate growth of five points to 54 points for India. While Japan and the UK had been the only
countries with positive trade outlooks in the previous update in September, the
two countries record the highest losses in this period.
“According
to the DHL Global Trade Barometer the year will probably end with moderate
world trade. However, we’ve to bear in mind where we come from: The rapid
growth world trade has undergone in recent years was like climbing the Mount
Everest. Now, we are on the descent, but we are still breathing altitude air”,
Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, says. “A countless number
of stable trade relations continues to flourish worldwide, despite smouldering
trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties.”
About the Global Trade Barometer
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is
an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and future
development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data
that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator is
published four times a year and the next release date is scheduled for end of
March 2020.
For more information on the DHL Global Trade Barometer,
please visit: logisticsofthings.dhl/gtb.
The
index is now also available for subscribers of the Bloomberg terminal by using
the code “DHLG <GO>”.
Note to editors:
The proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
(RCEP) will boost market access to products and capital, and create the world’s
largest regional trading bloc that will account for more than 29.1 percent
of global trade. Read more about Asia’s next trade pact and
its impact on global trade.
[1]
Click here for more
information on the outlook for air freight and ocean freight or the key sectors
in China.
[2]
In the Global Trade
Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while
values below 50 indicate contraction.
DHL – The logistics company for the world
DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL family
of divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging from
national and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillment
solutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrial
supply chain management. With about 380,000 employees in more than 220
countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businesses
securely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutions
for growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences and healthcare,
energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporate responsibility
and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL is decisively positioned
as “The logistics company for the world”.
DHL is part of
Deutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of more than 61 billion
euros in 2018.
