Coronavirus: UAE Case A Warning For Global Tourism

Must Read

List of Guaranty Trust Bank Sort Codes & Branches (with addresses) in Nigeria

The sort code is a number that usually identifies both the bank and the branch where an account is...

Top 10 Most Expensive Universities In Nigeria

For many Nigerians, high-quality higher education is a luxury. There are many private universities who are known not only...

Lagos Announces Partial Closure of Marine Beach for Repairs

The Lagos State Government has announced the partial closure of Marine Beach Bridge by Total Gas, inwards Apapa for...
Coronavirus: UAE Case A Warning For Global TourismCoronavirus: UAE Case A Warning For Global Tourism

The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Health has announced a diagnosis of a coronavirus case in a family from Wuhan in China – the first such publicly announced case in the Middle East. Of Dubai’s 16.7mn visitors in 2019, c6% came from China and 12% from North and south-east Asia overall. Dubai airport is the world’s busiest for international passengers with c90mn annually. Tourism directly contributes just under 5% of UAE GDP (likely significantly more of Dubai GDP). Tourism is a significant economic contributor across all of the regional economies, including Saudi Arabia.

Global deaths related to the virus have exceeded 130, confirmed cases in China have exceeded 6,000 and confirmed cases outside China are about 60 (according to data, at the time of writing, from WHO, CDC, NHC, Dingxiangyuan John Hopkins CSSE).

Many of the markets in our coverage are in economies where tourism contributes over 3% of GDP (including China, India, and South Africa in large EM). The following have over a 5% contribution:

• Africa: Egypt, Mauritius, Morocco, Tunisia
• Asia: Maldives, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Vietnam
• Europe-Former CIS: Croatia, Georgia, Iceland
• LatAm-Caribbean: Barbados, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama
• Middle East: Jordan, Lebanon

Read Also:  Mitsubishi hits Nigerian market with free check-up, diagnosis
- Advertisement -

Below we illustrate the exposure of economies across the emerging and frontier markets to tourism.

Clearly, the coronavirus is not geographically isolated and global tourism volumes are at risk, at least in the short-term, but the pattern of previous pandemics (or terror attacks) is that tourist traffic has rebounded from any such weakness relatively quickly.

Overall, we consider the Wuhan coronavirus in the same context as other almost-quantifiable global risks in the worst-case scenario (e.g. the potential for multi-state wars around India, Iran, Libya, North Korea, or the South China Sea, the longer-term impact from trade and migration barriers, or the rising sovereign indebtedness). They are all potentially extremely disruptive, but investors are unlikely to price them in precisely because, in a worst-case scenario, they are so quantifiable (to the degree that investment analysis may be the least of anyone’s concerns) and, in the shorter-term, the availability of central bank liquidity makes the downside of being too early to price these risks in far too painful.

Chart: Travel and tourism direct contribution to GDP (2020f, %)

- Advertisement -
Read Also:  MTN Nigeria reports 11.2% rise in revenue as subscriber drops

Coronavirus: UAE Case A Warning For Global Tourism

This article appeared first on Tellimer

- Advertisement -
Coronavirus: UAE Case A Warning For Global TourismCoronavirus: UAE Case A Warning For Global Tourism

Subscribe to BrandSpur Ng

Subscribe for latest updates. Signup to best of brands and business news, informed analysis and opinions among others that can propel you, your business or brand to greater heights.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Coronavirus: UAE Case A Warning For Global TourismCoronavirus: UAE Case A Warning For Global Tourism

Latest News

Lagos Announces Partial Closure of Marine Beach for Repairs

The Lagos State Government has announced the partial closure of Marine Beach Bridge by Total Gas, inwards Apapa for...

MTN Nigeria announces N100 billion Commercial Paper issuance

MTN Nigeria Communications Plc has notified the public of its proposed series I and II commercial paper issuance of up to 50 Billion Naira. Having...

United Capital Plc Raises N10billion in Series 1 Bond Issuance

Aligning with its organizational objectives for the year 2020, United Capital Plc (“the Company”) has announced that the Company has successfully raised the sum...

Itel Mobile Unveils Olamide As Brand Ambassador (Photos)

In what can only be considered as the coming together of two kings, the smartphone for everyone brand, itel Mobile has unveiled Afro-pop star,...

At Least 80 Million Children Under One At Risk Of Diseases Such As Diphtheria, Measles And Polio As COVID-19 Disrupts Routine Vaccination Efforts, Warn...

COVID-19 is disrupting life-saving immunization services around the world, putting millions of children – in rich and poor countries alike – at risk of...
- Advertisement -
BrandsPur Weekly Cartoons
- Advertisement -Coronavirus: UAE Case A Warning For Global TourismCoronavirus: UAE Case A Warning For Global Tourism