At a global level, consumer sentiment keeps rebounding slowly

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At 41.4, the Global Consumer Confidence Index is up by half a point over last month (40.9). August is the second consecutive month showing a gain in consumer sentiment at the global level, supporting the notion that it is bottomed-out in June and is now rebounding. However, the index remains 7.2 points below its pre-pandemic level of January and nearly five and a half points lower than its historic average spanning over 10 years.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of each of the 24 world markets’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform.

This month, seven countries have shown a growth of 1.5 points or more in their National Index, including China (+3.2), Poland (+2.4), Turkey (+2.4), Brazil (+2.4), Russia (+1.9), Italy (+1.6), and Sweden (+1.5). Israel (-2.0), and South Africa (-1.6) are the only two countries to show a significant drop in their National Index between July and August. In contrast, back in June, 12 countries were showing a significant drop in their National Index vs. the month prior.

At a global level, consumer sentiment keeps rebounding slowly

Furthermore, at 52.2 globally, the Expectations Index, reflective of consumers’ outlook on their local economy, financial situation, and employment, is up by 0.7 points over last month. It is up significantly from last month in 11 of 24 countries and down significantly in four. Globally, August confirms the chain of the direction of the Expectations Index observed in July when it recorded its first positive growth since January.

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National Index Trends

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Compared to January, every single country’s National Index is down except for China’s (+3.2). Six countries see their National Index down by more than 10 points (Isreal, Mexico, the U.S., India, South African, and Brazil) and 10 other countries by 5 to 10 points.

  • While 11 of the 24 countries surveyed had a National Index higher than 50 back in January, this is now the case of only three countries: China (72.9), Saudi Arabia (58.3), and Sweden (51.3).
  • At the other end of the spectrum, seven countries now have a National Index below 35, as compared to just one (Turkey) in January: South Africa (28.9), Turkey (32.7), Japan (33.1), Spain (33.6), Russia (33.8), Mexico (33.8), and Hungary (34.6).

Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Index Trends

At a global level, the Expectations Index (+0.7), the Jobs Index (+0.5) and the Investment Index (+0.6) all show small growth over the last month.

  • The Jobs Index, indicative of confidence in job security and the employment outlook (47.2 globally), is showing significant gains in nine countries this month (compared to six last month and none in June); it is down by more than 1.5 points in only four countries (compared to five last month and 14 in June).
  • The Investment Index, indicative of the investment climate (35.0 globally) is up significantly in six countries: Turkey (+3.0), Brazil, (+2.6), China (+2.3), Russia (+1.5), Poland (+1.5), and Germany (+1.5); it is significantly down only in Hungary (-2.4). Last month, there were three countries with significant drops and 15 back in June.
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