Cadbury Nigeria – Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery

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Cadbury Nigeria Plc, in its recently released Q3’2020 financial results, declared a revenue growth, after two consecutive quarters of revenue decline of 28% year-on-year (YoY) and 8% YoY in Q2’2020 and Q1’2020, respectively. In Q3’2020, revenue grew by 4% YoY from N9.46bn in Q3’2019 to N9.88bn in Q3’2020.

Cadbury Nigeria’s operating profit stood at N420.40mn, compared to an operating loss of N76.84mn in Q3’2019. Profit before tax significantly rose from a loss of N31.30mn in Q3’2019 to a profit of N453.89mn in Q3’2020.

In a similar trend, Cadbury Nigeria’s profit after tax improved from a loss of N21.91mn to a profit of N317.72mn.

Positive Surprise in Topline Growth:

The actual revenue growth of 4% in Q3’2020 came at a positive surprise relative to our estimated revenue decline of 15% YoY. We had expected to see a slower recovery in topline growth even though we anticipated a gradual reopening of the economy. In our view, we posit that increased market penetration and stronger-than-expected market demand propelled the revenue growth in Q3’2020.

Cadbury Nigeria - Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery

Low Input Prices Drive Cost optimisation:

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Cadbury Nigeria’s cost margin improved by 200 basis points from 82% in Q3’2019 to 80% in Q3’2020. We expected to see an 89% cost margin, driven by our expected steeper revenue decline. Based on our perspective, we attribute the improvement in cost margin, despite the impact of an exchange rate devaluation, to lower raw input prices.

Although data from International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) revealed that cocoa prices were flat in Q3’2020 at an average of $2,303 per tonne, we believe that the Group benefitted from lower prices in previous quarters, thus the weighted average cost of inventory possibly resulted in the lower cost margin in Q3’2020.

As a result of a lower cost margin in Q3’2020, Cadbury Nigeria’s gross profit grew by 15% YoY from N1.72bn in Q3’2019 to N1.97bn in Q3’2020.

Read Also:  Cadbury Nigeria Plc Announces the Resignation of Mr. Atedo Peterside As Chairman

Improved Operating Efficiency Further Accretive to Bottomline:

Operating expense declined by 14% YoY from N1.80bn in Q3’2019 to N1.56bn in Q3’2020, driven by a 46% YoY decline in administrative expense from N540.31mn in Q3’2019 to N290.08mn in Q3’2020. Furthermore, selling and distribution expense was relatively managed, as it grew by just 1% YoY from N1.26bn in Q3’2019 to N1.27bn in Q3’2020.

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Therefore, the cost savings in Q3’2020, in combination with a 15% YoY growth in operating income, resulted in a 647% YoY growth in operating profit to N420.40mn. Effectively, the Group generated more income at a relatively lower cost, thus underpinning an operating efficiency during the period.

Given a zero finance cost and despite a 26% YoY decline in finance income from N45.54mn to N33.49mn, profit before tax grew by 1,550% to N453.89mn in Q3’2020.

Financial Performance Summary

Cadbury Nigeria - Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery Brandspurng
Source: Company Accounts, WSTC Research

Outlook

We revised our earnings expectation to reflect an improved outlook, majorly on the back of an economic reopening. We also expect to see higher levels of demand associated with end-of-year consumption activities. We expect to see a sustained relatively lower raw input price in Q4’2020. In the long-term, we believe that increased demand (driven by an improved route-to-market strategy) and cost optimisation will drive topline and bottom-line growth.

Valuation

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Using a blend of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Residual Income Model (RIM), and EV/EBITDA valuation methodologies, we arrived at a fair value of N7.04 for the stock. At current market price, we believe that the stock offers a total return of -11% (price return: -18%: dividend yield: 6%). Hence, we recommend a SELL.

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Latest News

GBG: Six predictions for the financial services and fraud landscape in 2021

By Dev Dhiman, Managing Director of GBG Asia Pacific

 

SINGAPORE - Media OutReach - 28 January 2021 - 2020 catapulted financial institutions forward in their implementation and optimisation of technology. According to 71% of Asia Pacific (APAC) technology decision-makers the pandemic has caused their organisations to step up digital transformation, while 70% of financial services organisations in APAC  believe innovation is now a "must", reflecting the impact of COVID-19 in shifting consumers and businesses to being digital-first.


When looking ahead at how financial institutions (FIs) will be impacted by these trends in 2021, there are six key ways in which FIs are expected to evolve.


1. COVID-19 drove a dichotomy in fraud technology investment


There is a distinct difference in investment between FIs in countries still heavily impacted by COVID-19, and those in the stages of emerging from the pandemic.


For countries that have yet to enter into a stable recovery period, FIs will be making a more conservative approach to overall investment and sustaining cashflow, but deprioritising investments in fraud technology could leave them unprepared for the potential rise in financial crime and fraud during financial hardship. FIs in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, which are seeing reinstatement or continued lockdowns in the country, may become even more hard-pressed for stronger fraud prevention technology to combat an increase in financial crime, as basic fraud systems may not adequately protect them against emerging and complex fraud typologies.


For FIs in Asia Pacific emerging from or preparing to emerge from the pandemic, such as Singapore, Australia, Vietnam, and Taiwan, while confidence will be relatively higher, spending will be cautious, as maintaining substantial cashflow will remain a priority. Rather than overhauling fraud and compliance systems, FIs would likely choose to recalibrate, update and optimise their digital onboarding as well as payments and transaction monitoring technology. Investments would be specific to address prominent gaps and data intelligence. Alternative data to onboard more challenging cohorts, creating readiness against cyber endpoint threats, and relationship analysis may be considered to address acquisition growth strategy and growing volumes and complexity of online fraud attacks.


2. Digital customer experience expectations will continue to skyrocket

 

Global ecommerce powerhouses like Alibaba and Amazon and has normalised expectations around customer experience (CX) including same-day delivery services, real-time shipping tracking, and more, in turn significantly impacting customers' CX standards for FIs. A recent study showed seven in 10 customers demonstrated a deeper loyalty to financial services and insurance companies that heavily invest in CX.


In 2021, the industry is already seeing FIs and fintechs race to deliver instantaneous services through new financial products, with GBG's latest research finding 31% of FIs in APAC planning to offer instant bank accounts and instant loans, 29% planning to offer instant credit cards, and 22% planning to offer user voice activated fund transfers and bill payments. To take CX to the next level, there is a probability that the financial services sector will explore replicating successes from other industries, such as retail businesses that have effectively used augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) technologies to re-create in-store experiences, which could be used by banks to create virtual in-branch experiences.


3. Cross-vertical collaboration and consumer data drill-down are re-shaping digitalisation standards

 

Collaborations amongst major enterprises in the digital banking space demonstrated the investment across seemingly unlikely industries in working together to effectively serve customers at scale. Last year, for example, Trip.com Group partnered with Standard Chartered, PCCW and HKT to launch a new virtual banking service and Asia's first all-in-one numberless bank card, Mox, while multinational ride hailing company Grab teamed up with Singtel to prepare to launch their own digital banking license in 2022. While both of these examples span multiple industries, they each highlight the impetus among businesses to use business partnerships to gain truly 360-degree views of their customers' needs.


Looking at 2021 and beyond, this collaborative mindset is likely to continue as government and regulatory bodies work together to focus on accelerating digital identity availability, while also teaming up with partners like telco providers, educational institutions and aggregators to create access to more comprehensive and accurate data sets. FIs would become more active in exploring the use and ingestion of incremental data sets, beyond the basic internal data and official sources, to feed into their core fraud engine and enhance fraud detection and prevention.


FIs have already reinvented partnerships to form new market propositions. This openness and innovation would spill over into fraud management and propel them to leverage on an expanded ecosystem to layer their data with intelligence from specialists in location, mobile data, devices, cybersecurity, data co-relation, and IP. This broader and deeper approach will more effectively equip FIs with appropriate fraud prevention capabilities as the world becomes increasingly digital-first.

Read Also:  Cadbury Nigeria Plc Announces the Resignation of Mr. Atedo Peterside As Chairman


4. Expanding availability of shorter-term credit offerings across SEA

 

The rise of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) businesses has disrupted the credit landscape with shorter-term credit services for everyday purchases, faster or no credit checks, instant approvals, and "zero interest". New BNPL players across APAC have been setup and are quickly catching onto opportunities to offer new and more agile types of loans.


FIs need to remain vigilant in how BNPL products are rolled out, credits are distributed, and debts are managed. This ease in obtaining credit can lead to more exposure to higher risk borrowers. FIs focusing on growing their BNPL offerings need to build in stronger measures to onboard consumers who have the ability and intent to pay back what they have borrowed while keeping the standards of BNPL experience to ensure this revenue stream does not go sideways in the long term.


5. Mobile-first technology and data intelligence as fundamental building blocks for dynamic digital onboarding and transacting

 

Mobile devices are widely used to accelerate the digital onboarding and transacting process. FIs are automating the identity verification journey and streamlining biometric and facial verification, document verification and data match altogether in instant KYC.


Today, mobile devices do more than enabling the identity verification process. In Southeast Asia, seven in 10 adults are either "underbanked" or "unbanked"and excluded from many traditional financial services. FIs have begun to ascertain the quality of consumers with limited identity documentation, or thin file clients, leveraging their mobile phones as a personal identity verification device.


Mobile metadata, device usage patterns and SIM card records are alternatives to traditional verification methods, datasets and data sources. These alternatives offer data intelligence that FIs could use to fill gaps in physical records, providing assessment and validation to the authenticity and quality of consumer profiles and borrowing intent of these untapped segments.

 

6. Socially engineered first party fraud and identity crimes taking on a new level of complexity

 

Bringing together the above trends and predictions, the combination of accelerated digital transformation among businesses, skyrocketing consumer usage of social media, ecommerce, ebanking and online platforms, and increased collaboration across FIs and non-bank organisations result in growing opportunities for fraudsters and crime syndicates to mine data.


Consequently, socially engineered first party fraud, identity crimes like synthetic ID and impersonations would take on a new level of detection complexity. FIs have a responsibility to counter these attacks, proactively manage the growing volume of channels where bad actors can access personal information, and guard against financial crime and identity theft. As such threats continue to broaden alongside other industry-wide trends, consumers' expectations of FIs' commitments to protecting and futureproofing their financial services and products will also grow.


Organisations will need to reflect their commitments to customer satisfaction and retention with more sophisticated and agile approaches to fraud prevention and fraud technology investments.


About GBG:

GBG offers a range of solutions that help organisations quickly validate and verify the identity and location of their customers.


Our market-leading technology, data and expertise help our customers improve digital access, deliver a seamless experience, and establish trust so that they can transact quickly, safely and securely with their customers online.


Headquartered in the UK and with over 1,000 team members across 16 countries, we work with 20,000 customers in over 70 countries. Some of the world's best-known businesses rely on GBG to provide digital services and keep the economy moving, from US e-commerce giants to Asia's biggest banks and European household brands.


To find out more about how we help our clients establish trust with their customers, visit www.gbgplc.com/apac, follow us on Twitter @gbgplc or Cadbury Nigeria - Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery - Brand SpurLinkedIn.


Cadbury Nigeria - Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery - Brand Spur

Oppa Kim Woo Bin arrives in Singapore!

SINGAPORE - Media OutReach - 28 January 2021 - DAEBAK! Fans can now meet the one and only figure of Woo-bin for a limited period, right here in Singapore. The popular Korean actor once again joins his co-star Bae Suzy from "Uncontrollably Fond", but this time at Madame Tussauds Singapore!

 

Cadbury Nigeria - Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery - Brand Spur

To celebrate the opening of the Brand new K-wave zone at Madame Tussauds

 

The world famous wax attraction brought in Kim Woo Bin to celebrate the opening of their brand new K- wave zone, which opened today to the public. Fans can gather around some of their favourite Korean stars, while snapping Insta worthy shots in front of iconic Korean themed sets.

Cadbury Nigeria - Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery - Brand Spur

 

The eyecatching Cherry Blossom tree takes center stage in the new zone. With cherry blossoms that change colour, this is the perfect spot to bring your date for #couplegoals pics. Missing Korea as much as we do...we've got you. Wander away and pose in front of the hanoks with Kim Woo Bin. Or shoot your boomerangs in front of the pretty cherry blossom flower wall and inspire your friends on where to shoot their next OOTD.


Cadbury Nigeria - Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery - Brand Spur 

Cadbury Nigeria - Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery - Brand Spur

 

Madame Tussauds Singapore is based at Imbiah Lookout. Come and enjoy the brand-new K-wave zone with the SingapoRediscovers Vouchers. Visit the family fun attraction and get 5 experiences for only 1 ticket. For more information on how to redeem these vouchers and to know what the 5 experiences are, please visit our website www.madametussauds.com/Singapore.


Twitter: @MTsSingapore
Instagram: @MTsSingapore
Facebook: @MadameTussaudsSingapore Hashtag: #MadameTussaudsSG


For high res images: Cadbury Nigeria - Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery - Brand Spurhttps://www.dropbox.com/sh/khx2r1v9o12bn1m/AADTz9_nBt9DK7i3gnm1cNeQa?dl=0


Madame Tussauds

The ultimate celebrity experience and the world's best known and most popular wax attraction. There are currently 23 Madame Tussauds attractions around the world. Each of the attractions is unique and tailored to the host city and visitor demographic to feature both local as well as international figures.

The result of 200 years of expertise and painstaking research every figure takes Madame Tussauds' gifted sculptors a minimum of three months to make, and costs more than $300K (Singapore dollars). Most contemporary figures are also produced following sittings with the celebrities themselves.

Cadbury Nigeria - Lockdown Easing Drive Q3’2020 Earnings Recovery - Brand Spur

SugarCRM Launches SugarPredict to Take the Guesswork Out of Sales with AI for All

CUPERTINO, CALIFORNIA - Media OutReach - 28 January 2021 - SugarCRM Inc., the innovator of time-aware CX, today announced the launch of SugarPredict, the first data-fueled AI for CRM. SugarPredict delivers new levels of prediction accuracy without the time, cost, and technical expertise typically required for companies to take advantage of AI.

 

Fifty-two percent of sales leaders say their CRM is costing them lost revenue, according to new research from SugarCRM that examines the lack of customer visibility that plagues most companies. The quality and consistency of the data entered by CRM users can create challenges for basic AI systems. SugarPredict takes a different approach by enriching customer data with additional attributes that results in more comprehensive and consistent AI models. SugarPredict provides accurate predictions, even with limited first-party data, while diligently guarding the privacy and security of company and customer information.

 

"AI can solve a number of sales and marketing barriers today, putting it at the heart of CRM," said Paul Greenberg, president of the 56 Group and author of CRM at the Speed of Light. "Sales teams that lean into AI-powered CRM can take advantage of the lead insights and opportunity models that give them a significant competitive advantage." 

 

As the first of many SugarPredict-powered capabilities in Sugar Sell, the technology is being used to take the guesswork out of lead prioritization, lead Ideal Customer Profile (ICP) alignment, and opportunity-to-close-won scoring. SugarPredict analyzes historical account, deal, and company data to accurately predict which leads are most likely to become customers. Lead scoring is based on similarity to historical conversions (converted leads or closed-won opportunities), while ideal customer profile matching identifies leads that are similar to a company's past and current customer bases.

 

"SugarPredict helps companies replace a fragmented, out-of-date, and incomplete picture with a sharply focused understanding of both their customers and business," said Craig Charlton, CEO of SugarCRM. "We've made significant product investments, over the last year, to democratize AI to drive business performance and enable predictability for companies of all sizes."

 

"Like many companies in the manufacturing business Bishop-Wisecarver is always looking for ways to work smarter and faster than the competition", said Niegel Leoncio, CRM Manager for Bishop-Wisecarver. "We are excited about the launch of SugarPredict, which places the power of AI into the hands of sales and service teams so they can drive better results and a better customer experience."   

 

SugarPredict leverages Sugar's time-aware CX platform which provides a full historical record of all change events related to customers and customer-facing processes. SugarPredict for sales force automation, marketing automation, and customer service applications is based on technology from last summer's acquisition of Node.io. SugarPredict is free for Sugar Sell customers and will roll out to Sugar Market and Sugar Serve customers later this year.

 

Learn more about SugarPredict here.


About SugarCRM

SugarCRM's time-aware sales, marketing and service software helps companies deliver a high-definition (HD-CX) customer experience. For mid-market and enterprise companies that want  a CX-driven platform, Sugar gives teams the time-aware customer data they need to achieve a clear view of the customer and reach new levels of business performance and predictability, and increase customer lifetime value.

 

More than 4,500 companies in 120 countries rely on SugarCRM. Based in Silicon Valley, SugarCRM is backed by Accel-KKR. 

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