The October 2020 Inflation report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to be released on the 16th of November 2020. Analysts at Meristem envisaged an uptick in the headline inflation rate to 14.09%, from 13.71% reported in September 2020.
Food Prices Maintain Upward Trend
Lingering factors in the domestic scene are poised to keep the price of food and core products moving northwards in the medium term. Despite the decline in global crude oil prices, the price modulation regime adopted by the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) did cause the department to lower petrol prices to below NGN150 per litre.
In addition to the preexisting factors mentioned in our October expectation, such as the insecurity challenges in Northeast Nigeria and sustained border closure, the limitation of movement in Lagos, Abuja and other key states, following the October protests, affected supply chains for finished and secondary goods.
Average prices of selected food items such as agric eggs, tomatoes, rice and yam all increased YoY in September 2020. States in the Southern part of Nigeria witnessed the highest rise in food prices as opposed to the north which recorded the lowest food prices.
Thus, Meristem Analyst expects these pressures to sustain the continued uptrend in food inflation in October. Hence, expect headline inflation to come in at 14.09% YoY in October.