Rapid Urbanization and Urban Development: Implications for Housing in Lagos State

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Urbanization has been a key force of economic development throughout Nigeria and the world. Rural-urban migration provides access to employment and business opportunities, good healthcare, education, communication, transportation, and security. Globally, 55.3% of the world’s 4.2 billion people lived in urban areas in 2018.

By 2050, that percentage is projected to reach 68% according to a United Nations report.1 Nigeria’s urban population already makes up over 50% of its +200 million population; it is expected to add 189 million urban dwellers by 2050.

Rural migrants are flocking to urban centres. This is particularly the case in Lagos State, Nigeria’s economic and industrial hub. Its urbanization rate is about 5.8% per annum; it was ranked the 18th largest city in the world in 2018.

Rapid Urbanization and Urban Development Brandspurng Implications for Housing in Lagos State

However, the urban planning and development policies driving Lagos’s megacity aspirations are disconnected from the livelihood realities of the majority in the state. It is important that Lagos places a higher priority on housing in its overall development plan, as most of its population are poor, rural migrants and slum dwellers.

Lagos State: Case Study

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Lagos has grown from a tiny fishing village in the late 15th century to a state of more than 22 million residents today and is the most populous city in Nigeria. It occupies 3,577 km2 making it the smallest state in the country by landmass. 21% of Lagos is wetlands consisting of creeks, lagoons and rivers.

Its concentration of industry, commerce and administration of capital, labour and technology accounts for over 60% of Nigeria’s activities. It has experienced a much faster growth rate than any other urban centre in the country.

In 1985, it was ranked the 31st largest city in the world, with a population of 5.8 million; in 1990, the population increased to 7.7 million, making it the 22nd largest city in the world. The metro area population of Lagos was roughly 13.5 million as of 2018, making it the 18th largest city in the world.

Lagos has been a powerful generator of national economic growth, contributing over 30% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP). The development goal of the state is to become ‘a model African megacity’ and a global economic and financial hub that is safe, secure, functional, and productive.

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However, the urban development policies and regulations driving this megacity aspiration are disconnected from the realities of the majority.

For the most part, people in Lagos are poor, rural migrants who live in informal and slum settlements with high infrastructure costs, habitat fragmentation, water and air pollution and reduction in overall quality of life.8 Urbanization tends to increase land values and subsequently rental costs which poor migrants, the majority of Lagos’s population, often cannot afford.

These settlements are often targeted for demolition under the cloak of urban development, which in most cases comes with no compensation or alternative living arrangements10, leading to the displacement of the dwellers.

There is already a housing deficit of more than 17 million units.11 Meanwhile, Lagos Affordable Public Housing (LAPH), an ongoing private-public partnership, intends to construct 20,000 affordable housing units within five years (2017-2022).

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However, the scope of delivery is either not known or masked in a muddle. Given that many of these sub-par residential settlements require significant renewal investment, the shortage of decent affordable housing presents a good opportunity for prospective private sector players to improve the capacity of the construction sector to address these needs.

The architectural design should drive affordable solutions and provide economies of scale through which large-scale production could be optimized. In addition, government intervention is needed in Lagos state to provide subsidized credit, cooperative housing and social support programs.

Lessons from Brazil and Egypt

 A close examination of Brazil and Egypt provides important insights about the urban development process and policy with greater emphasis on housing. Both countries have large populations (approximately 211 million in Brazil and 100 million in Egypt in 2019), and both were long classified as “over-urbanized” countries.

Brazil and Egypt had similar challenges with predominantly informal and slum settlements in the urban cores several decades ago. Nevertheless, the two countries have had success in implementing appropriate urban development frameworks, such as community-based and city-wide upgrading programs, private-public partnerships and an elaborate national housing policy.

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Brazil, for instance, rebuilt its urban governance policy to accommodate the participation of all urban dwellers in decision-making processes, which played a decisive role in affirming the sociopolitical right to adequate housing.

The ‘City Statute’, a 2001 federal law that governs urban development, explicitly requires the participation of residents in the urban planning process.

In addition, Brazil’s social housing program, Minha Casa, Minha Vida (My House, My Life) launched in 2009, in combination with the Growth Acceleration Program for Slum Upgrading effective from 2007, is a notable example of housing development in the country.

These programs primarily target low-income groups and slum dwellers. At the same time, there are curative and preventive measures to develop the prevalent inadequate housing conditions in slums and minimize both the growth of existing ones and the emergence of new ones.

A robust policy of initial subsidy grants and enhanced housing credits, benefiting from steady economic growth and a well-focused social agenda for Brazil, culminating in the success of these initiatives.

The low prevalence of slums in Egypt reflects its long-term political commitment to slum upgrading, slum prevention and housing alternatives for the urban poor.

The Egyptian government’s initiative of slum upgrading, which began in Hai El Salam, Ismailia in 1978, is a pioneer in international best practice. The strategy that was used in this context was to allow the slum dwellers to upgrade their houses incrementally.

In Lagos state, it is worth exploring this instance of self-redevelopment of a slum with minimal government interference, particularly in view of the limited resources available to the government.

In Egypt, non-governmental initiatives for slum upgrading were also implemented in the 2000s through influential non-governmental organizations. They introduced valuable pilots for the on-site redevelopment of homes for the slum dwellers as an alternative to the predominant approach of local governments resettling slum dwellers in new remote locations.

As the region became more developed, the initial poor-quality homes were completely replaced by high-quality, well-designed dwellings over time.

How Lagos can integrate the complex realities of the majority into its development goal 

Investment in upgrading programs:

Implementing citywide, slum-upgrading programs that can improve the housing conditions and the quality of life in existing slums in Lagos is a first and crucial step for the state government to achieve urban modernity.

Just like Egypt, the Lagos state government should allow self-redevelopment of slums with financial support where needed and in so doing, offer the slum dwellers the prospect of contributing a significant share of domestic capital formation through self-built housing.

Comprehensive development plans:

Secondly, urban development plans need to be modified around citizen participation, which could be adopted by the local government councils. The transparency in the planning process is central to promoting urban development in Lagos.

For instance, in approaching affordable housing delivery in a large city like Lagos, multiple housing delivery outlets are required. This will be difficult to implement without the participation of urban dwellers.

Innovations:

Everyone in urban centres is affected by the problem of urban slum growth. It, therefore, should be the responsibility of both the public and private sectors to create innovative methods, like mixed-use and low-income housing, for decent affordable homes for the residents of the state, especially those within the low-income bracket.

Also, policies enabling investment in quality housing, such as a real estate finance support scheme, should be considered by the state government in order to prevent the rise in slums and informal settlements in the future.

Conclusion

Urban areas are considered to have multifaceted roles in nations. They are at the centre of a nation’s technical advancement and economic growth as seen in Lagos state. That is why populations will continue to move to urban settings. Thus, the Lagos state government and development agencies should focus on adapting to the trend of urbanization.

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Kinaxis Named a Leader in the 2021 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Supply Chain Planning Solutions Report

Kinaxis evaluated on both execution and vision with furthest placement for completeness of vision in the Leaders quadrant

 

OTTAWA, CANADA - Media OutReach - 4 March 2021 - Kinaxis® Inc. (TSX:KXS), the authority in driving agility for fast, confident decision-making in an unpredictable world, today announced it has been named a Leader in the 2021 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Supply Chain Planning Solutions. The company is recognized for both the ability to execute and its completeness of vision. Kinaxis is positioned furthest on the Completeness of Vision axis amongst those in the Leaders quadrant 1.

A complimentary copy of the report can be downloaded from Kinaxis. This is the seventh consecutive time Kinaxis has been named a Leader in a Gartner Magic Quadrant related to supply chain planning 1 .

"In the face of the unprecedented level of disruption over the past year, corporate supply chains have never been more relevant and doing nothing to improve planning has become the biggest risk. Supply chain leaders at companies of all sizes have recognized a need for a transformational shift to agility and resiliency based on a new planning technique -- concurrent planning, that only Kinaxis can provide," said John Sicard, CEO of Kinaxis. "Kinaxis uniquely combines AI, analytics and human intelligence to empower innovative manufacturers to eliminate functional silos and cost-effectively optimize the potential of their supply chains in just a few weeks."

Continued Sicard, "We believe we are the leading innovator based on vision in the market and are thrilled with our positioning for our current, proven RapidResponse platform. Kinaxis takes pride in our talented team, the collaborative relationships we have with our customer and partner community and helping advance the craft of supply chain planning for the benefit of the planet."

Top-tier manufacturers around the world use Kinaxis in the aerospace and defense, automotive, consumer products, high-tech and electronics, industrial, life sciences and retail industries, including Unilever, Schneider Electric, Flex, Merck, Technicolor, Alstom and Honda, and many others.

"Schneider Electric's supply chain digitalization journey, including our work with Kinaxis, has allowed us to function as a truly global enterprise," said Mourad Tamoud, Chief Supply Chain Officer at Schneider Electric. "Through our engagement with Kinaxis, we have found them to be industry-leading, and the partnership has enabled us to have greater transparency, wider collaboration and increasingly autonomous high-quality decision-making throughout the organization."

Kinaxis RapidResponse® is a cloud-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) platform purpose-built for planning, leveraging patented in-memory database technology and always-on algorithms. Combined with Kinaxis' unique concurrent planning technique and AI, RapidResponse helps global manufacturers gain agile and resilient supply chains. The Kinaxis suite of ready-to-deploy planning applications (S&OP / IBP, Demand, Supply, Command & Control Center, Inventory, Live Lens Insights) is optimized with industry best practice processes and robust analytics that are synchronized across long and short-term planning and across the end-to-end network from customers to suppliers. The RapidResponse platform is uniquely extensible to build, access or connect to custom applications, algorithms and external systems across the supply network ecosystem.

Kinaxis helps customers accelerate value realization with multiple deployment options to go-live in as little as six weeks. These seamlessly expandable options allow companies to start now and focus on the most important initiatives. All based on RapidResponse, these options can grow over time to meet budget, team and change management needs along the digital transformation journey.

"Gartner defines a supply chain planning (SCP) solution as a platform that provides technology support which allows a company to manage, link, align, collaborate and share its planning data across an extended supply chain. It supports demand creation through to the detailed supply-side response and from strategic planning through tactical-level planning. An SCP solution is the planning decision repository for a defined end-to-end supply chain and is the environment in which end-to-end integrated supply chains are managed. It establishes a single version of the truth for the plan data and decisions, regardless of the underlying execution technology environment." 1

The SCP market was worth $5.2 billion in 2019 and is projected to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% according to the Gartner Forecast: Enterprise Application Software, Worldwide, 2018-2024, 4Q20 Update. 2

According to Gartner, "Leaders demonstrate strong SCP solution vision and execution capabilities. They have a broad, deep and differentiated functionality that addresses a broad range of user requirements. Their coverage across the three categories of planning capability -- configure, optimize and respond -- is good enough, with a good balance across the categories now and/or planned for the future. They have a reasonable range of features to support a user's maturity journey. Their visions for supporting the three paradigms of SCP -- algorithmic SCP, digital supply chain planning and resilient planning -- align with Gartner's vision. When these three paradigms are blended together, they build the foundation to support a Level 5 SCP environment. Leaders anticipate where customer demands and markets are moving and identify how innovative technologies can be applied to planning applications. They have strategies to support these emerging requirements to build a future-proof SCP solution. Because leaders are well-established in leading-edge complex user environments, they benefit from a user community that helps them remain in the forefront of emerging needs." 1

For further information, you can access a complimentary copy of the full Magic Quadrant for Supply Chain Planning Solutions report here.

1 Gartner, Magic Quadrant for Supply Chain Planning Solutions, A. Salley, T. Payne, P. Orup Lund, Feb. 22, 2021

Gartner, Magic Quadrant for Sales and Operations Planning System of Differentiation, T. Payne et al, May 7, 2019; Gartner, Magic Quadrant for Supply Chain Planning System of Record, Payne, Tim, Pradhan, Alex, & Salley, Amber, 21 August 2018

2 Gartner, Forecast: Enterprise Application Software, Worldwide, 2018-2024, 4Q20 Update, Amarendra, N. Gupta, B. Abbabatulla, A. Woodward, C. Pang, C. Roth, E. Hunter, J. Hare, K. Quinn, J. Poulter, Y. Dharmasthira, J. Kostoulas, December 22, 2020

Gartner Disclaimer:

Gartner does not endorse any vendor, product or service depicted in our research publications, and does not advise technology users to select only those vendors with the highest ratings or other designation. Gartner research publications consist of the opinions of Gartner's research organization and should not be construed as statements of fact. Gartner disclaims all warranties, expressed or implied, with respect to this research, including any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.


About Kinaxis Inc.

Everyday volatility and uncertainty demand quick action. Kinaxis® delivers the agility to make fast, confident decisions across integrated business planning and the digital supply chain. People can plan better, live better and change the world. Trusted by innovative brands, we combine human intelligence with AI and concurrent planning to help companies plan for any future, monitor risks and opportunities and respond at the pace of change. Powered by an extensible, cloud-based platform, Kinaxis delivers industry-proven applications so everyone can know sooner, act faster and remove waste. For more Kinaxis news, visit Kinaxis.com or follow us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements in this release constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements include statements as to Kinaxis' growth opportunities and the potential benefits of, and demand for, Kinaxis' products and services. These statements are subject to certain assumptions, risks and uncertainties, including our view of the relative position of Kinaxis' products and services compared to competitive offerings in the industry. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. Kinaxis' actual results, performance, achievements and developments may differ materially from the results, performance, achievements or developments expressed or implied by such statements. Risk factors that may cause the actual results, performance, achievements or developments of Kinaxis to differ materially from the results, performance, achievements or developments expressed or implied by such statements can be found in the public documents filed by Kinaxis with Canadian securities regulatory authorities. Kinaxis assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as expressly required by law.

Rapid Urbanization and Urban Development: Implications for Housing in Lagos State - Brand Spur
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