Inflation Report – January 2022

The NBS has released its January inflation report to show –    
     
Headline rate 15.60% y/y (15.63% in December):   
Core rate 13.87% y/y (13.87%); and    
Food rate 17.13% y/y (17.37%).   

• January’s headline reading declined by 3bps (when compared with the previous month) to 15.60% y/y.

• On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation declined from 1.82% recorded in December ’21 to 1.47% in January ’22.

• Food inflation recorded a decrease of 24bps when compared with the previous month. For the food inflation rate (17.13%), the highest increases were recorded in oils and fats, fruits, bread, cereals, soft drinks, potatoes, yam, and other tubers.

• On a y/y basis, imported food price inflation increased by 6bps to 17.40% y/y from 17.34% y/y recorded in the previous month.

• Core inflation remained unchanged from the previous month. For the core inflation rate, price pressure was felt across electricity, liquid fuel, tobacco, wine, cleaning, shoes and other footwear, among others.

• The NBS tracks headline inflation by state, with Abuja recording the highest (18.59% y/y) and Kwara recording the lowest (12.94% y/y) in January ‘22. It is worth noting that household baskets vary across states due to different consumption patterns.

• At the last Monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, held in January, committee members expressed concerns around the impact of insecurity in farming communities on the food inflation rate. However, noted that prices should trend downwards given the CBN’s ongoing interventions in the agriculture sector.

• The CBN’s in-house estimates suggest that a further rebound in economic growth is largely hinged upon continued stability in oil price, progress in COVID-19 vaccinations and support from both monetary and fiscal policy.

• The MPC is scheduled to hold its next meeting on the 21st  and 22nd of March ‘22.