Coface Country and Sector Risk Barometer – Q2 2023 Lost illusions and great expectations

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HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach – 13 June 2023 – The year 2023 began with great enthusiasm, but in all likelihood it will not be the year that most observers were expecting. The 1st half of the year has reinforced some of our convictions: no, inflation will not spontaneously and painlessly return to its 2% target in developed countries; no, central banks will not “pivot” between now and the end of the year; and no, the mere lifting of health restrictions will not enable China to play the role of relay engine for the global economy. Two essential things that the market had lost sight of also came back to the fore: access to abundant, cheap energy remains central to the functioning of the global economic system, and monetary policy has more direct effects on asset valuations and financial stability than on consumer prices.

The economic outlook remains closely linked to inflation trends and to the response of central banks, and our forecasts are subject to a number of downside risks, including the supply of energy and credit.

Against this backdrop, Coface made 13 upgrades and 2 downgrades revisions to its country assessments, as well as 26 changes to its sector ratings (13 reclassifications and 13 downgrades). These underline an improvement in the outlook, but an environment that remains very demanding and uncertain.

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COFACE: FOR TRADE

With over 75 years of experience and the most extensive international network, Coface is a leader in trade credit insurance & risk management, and a recognized provider of Factoring, Debt Collection, Single Risk insurance, Bonding, and Information Services. Coface’s experts work to the beat of the global economy, helping ~50,000 clients in 100 countries build successful, growing, and dynamic businesses. With Coface’s insight and advice, these companies can make informed decisions. The Group’ solutions strengthen their ability to sell by providing them with reliable information on their commercial partners and protecting them against non-payment risks, both domestically and for export. In 2022, Coface employed ~4,720 people and registered a turnover of €1.81 billion.