Due to a sudden spike in memory chip prices that has taken much of the industry by surprise and altered the semiconductor industry’s power dynamics, Samsung Electronics is poised for its best quarterly performance in over seven years.
According to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG, the company is anticipated to report an operating profit for the October–December period of approximately ₩16.9 trillion (approximately $11.7 billion) won in the fourth quarter.
That amount would put Samsung within striking distance of its 2018 peak, when the memory market last saw a significant price cycle, and would represent an increase of about 160% from the previous year. Not only has demand changed, but so has its structure. The output of conventional memory has tightened as a result of manufacturers concentrating their capacity on advanced chips for data centres. Prices have reacted remarkably strongly.
According to TrendForce data available to BrandSpur digital news platform, contract prices for standard DRAM are expected to increase by an additional 55% to 60% in the first quarter of this year, while DDR5 DRAM prices increased by 314% year over year in the fourth quarter.
Samsung benefits greatly from this dynamic. The company is heavily involved in the conventional DRAM market, which many competitors have started to view as mature.
According to TrendForce analyst Avril Wu: “As conventional DRAM prices continue to surge, Samsung – whose production capacity is largely concentrated in this segment – stands to gain relatively more from the current price upcycle.”
This quarter is more than just a one-time comeback. A little more than a year ago, Samsung’s executives publicly apologised for the company’s poor performance after it lagged behind SK Hynix in providing Nvidia with high-bandwidth memory. The tone is different today.
Executive Chairman Jun Young-hyun informed investors on Friday that consumers had remarked, “Samsung is back,” in reference to Samsung’s next-generation HBM4 chips.
That is significant because of the competitive environment. In September 2025, SK Hynix finished what it called the world’s first HBM4 development, doubling bandwidth and reducing power consumption by 40%. It had already sold Nvidia all of its 2026 supply by the end of the previous year.
In the meantime, Micron’s CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, has warned investors that the company may only be able to satisfy half to two-thirds of the demand from a number of significant clients if the company’s memory shortage persists past 2026.
Chipmaker, Nvidia confirmed that its next generation of systems will use HBM4 memory when it unveiled its Vera Rubin platform at CES 2026. Reliable HBM supply has become crucial, as demonstrated by Nvidia’s announcement that the Vera Rubin architecture is in full production and scheduled for release later this year. This larger shift is evident in Samsung’s anticipated profit increase. In an attempt to believe that the price momentum in traditional memory has been underestimated, some analysts have already raised their fourth-quarter projections above 20 trillion won.
According to market projections, if pricing stays stable, Samsung’s operating profit could surpass 100 trillion won this year, more than doubling its level from the previous year. The turnaround has been widely welcomed by investors.
Despite a 2.1% decline in early Tuesday trading as the broader market paused following a rally, Samsung shares increased 125% last year, their biggest annual gain in 26 years. There are still risks.
As data centres rely more on debt to finance expansion, Lee Min-hee of BNK Investment & Securities warned that rising chip costs could reduce consumer device demand and highlighted “risks of a demand slowdown.”
Samsung has admitted to the constraints on its mobile business, where margins are being squeezed by growing component costs.
According to Co-chief Executive, TM Roh: “As this situation is unprecedented, no company is immune to its impact.”
Nevertheless, the next stage of global computing depends on a memory market that was previously written off as cyclical.
