Nigeria’s chilli pepper industry is on a steady growth path, with projections indicating that national output could reach 800,000 metric tonnes by 2030, reinforcing the country’s position as Africa’s largest chilli pepper producer.
Industry data shows that current production levels range between 757,000 and 770,000 metric tonnes, with gradual annual growth estimated at 0.3 to 0.5 per cent. While the pace may appear modest, analysts say the expansion is significant given the crop’s importance to food security, income generation and export potential. Peppers currently account for about 40 per cent of vegetable consumption in Nigeria.
Output is expected to hit approximately 767,000 metric tonnes in 2026, before rising steadily towards the upper range of 775,000 to 800,000 metric tonnes by the end of the decade. Cultivation is spread across roughly 104,000 hectares, largely concentrated in northern states such as Kano and Kaduna, where average yields range between 7 and 8 tonnes per hectare. Scotch bonnet remains the dominant variety grown.
Brandspur Banking News Desk understands that domestic demand alone is projected to reach 65,000 metric tonnes in the near term, driven by population growth, urban consumption patterns and the food processing sector.
Stakeholders within the agricultural value chain believe chilli pepper is evolving from a subsistence crop into a strategic commodity. Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Federation of Agricultural Commodity Associations of Nigeria (FACAN), Dr Victor Iyama, said demand continues to grow across both local and export markets.
According to him, chilli pepper production offers farmers and agribusiness investors a viable route to economic expansion, especially as regional and international demand strengthens. He noted that the crop’s versatility across culinary, industrial and pharmaceutical uses makes it increasingly attractive.
Despite Nigeria’s continental dominance, experts say unlocking faster growth will depend on addressing structural constraints. Pest infestations, climate variability and seasonal production cycles continue to limit yields. Analysts argue that wider adoption of irrigation systems, greenhouse farming and improved seed varieties could significantly boost output and stabilise supply.
On the global stage, Nigeria faces intense competition. India remains the world’s largest producer, recording about 1.9 million metric tonnes of chilli output in 2023, according to FAO FAOSTAT figures. In contrast, Nigeria produced roughly 330,000 metric tonnes of dry chillies, with dried chilli exports accounting for just 1.11 per cent of global trade.
The gap reflects differences in production models. India’s chilli sector benefits from advanced cultivation techniques, large-scale processing capacity and strong export integration, while Nigeria’s industry remains largely focused on fresh produce for domestic markets. Analysts say improving processing infrastructure and export readiness could help Nigeria capture more value from international markets.
European demand presents a notable opportunity. The Netherlands-based Centre for the Promotion of Imports from Developing Countries (CBI) has noted that chilli pepper demand in Europe is year-round, driven by diverse ethnic cuisines and changing food preferences. This contrasts with Nigeria’s largely seasonal supply pattern, which limits export consistency.
Other African producers are also expanding. Egypt, which produces between 200,000 and 300,000 tonnes annually, continues to face water constraints that cap growth. Morocco, meanwhile, has made significant gains in sweet pepper exports. During the 2024/25 marketing year, Moroccan sweet pepper exports reached 189,200 tonnes, generating $240 million in revenue, according to EastFruit.
Agricultural economists say Nigeria’s long-term competitiveness will depend on moving beyond volume to focus on quality standards, processing, storage and export logistics. With the right investments and policy support, the chilli pepper sector could play a larger role in diversifying Nigeria’s agricultural exports and boosting rural incomes.
