Nigeria’s inflation outlook for February 2026 is showing early signs of moderation, but analysts warn that escalating global energy prices could slow the pace of disinflation and complicate efforts to stabilise consumer prices in the months ahead.
Market projections indicate that headline inflation may ease to 14.12 percent year-on-year, compared with 15.10 percent recorded in January. The anticipated slowdown is being driven largely by improving conditions in the food segment, supported by relative exchange rate stability and easing pressures on imported items.
According to analysis by Coronation Asset Management, recent appreciation of the naira has helped reduce cost pressures across parts of the food supply chain, offering temporary relief to households grappling with elevated living costs. However, the firm cautioned that these gains remain fragile in the face of external shocks.
Brandspur Banking News Desk reports that rising global crude oil prices are emerging as a major risk to Nigeria’s inflation trajectory. Renewed geopolitical tensions, including recent military developments involving major oil-producing regions, have pushed international energy prices higher, with direct consequences for domestic fuel costs.
Pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit have climbed sharply in recent weeks, rising to about N799 per litre from around N699 in late January. Analysts say the increase is already feeding into higher transportation and logistics expenses, placing upward pressure on core inflation and limiting the impact of softer food prices.
Energy-driven inflation risks are being compounded by developments in global commodity markets. After several months of decline, the Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index edged higher by 0.9 percent in February, reflecting price increases in cereals, meat and vegetable oils. This reversal could weaken Nigeria’s food inflation outlook, particularly for imported staples.
While longer-term interventions are underway, their immediate impact is expected to be limited. The African Development Bank Group recently approved $200 million in financing to support agricultural investments, but economists note that such funding typically influences output and pricing over the medium to long term rather than delivering instant relief.
As investors and policymakers await the release of official February inflation data, the prevailing sentiment remains cautious. Analysts say Nigeria’s current macroeconomic environment is defined by a delicate balance between easing food prices and intensifying energy costs, leaving authorities with limited room to manoeuvre as global volatility continues to shape domestic inflation dynamics.
