Global retail media advertising investment is projected to reach $200.4 billion in 2026, with spending expected to climb further to $223.4 billion in 2027, even as the sector enters a period of slower growth and increasing pressure on retailers to protect the consumer experience.
The latest forecasts from WARC Media show retail media continuing to capture a larger share of global advertising budgets. By 2027, the sector is expected to account for 15.2 per cent of worldwide advertising investment, although growth is moving towards single-digit territory as the market matures.
Brandspur Brand News reports that, excluding Amazon, global retail media growth is forecast to fall to 9.8 per cent in 2027, the lowest annual growth rate since WARC Media began tracking the market. The slowdown reflects a sector moving from rapid expansion towards greater consolidation and competition among retail media networks.
The United States remains a major engine of growth. WARC Media projects US retail media network spending to rise by 13.6 per cent in 2028 to $74.9 billion. However, advertising investment remains heavily concentrated among the largest platforms.
Amazon accounted for 78 per cent of US retail media spending in 2025, while Walmart captured 7.5 per cent, according to Walrus Intelligence. The remaining 14.5 per cent was shared among other networks. A similar concentration has emerged in major European markets, where Amazon took more than two-thirds of retail media spending across France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.
Retail media has become particularly important for consumer packaged goods companies. By 2027, the channel is expected to account for 55.8 per cent of global media investment by alcoholic drinks brands and 54.9 per cent of spending in the food category.
Its influence is less pronounced in technology and electronics, where retail media is forecast to represent 15 per cent of total advertising expenditure in 2027, down from 16.2 per cent in 2025.
The sector is also facing concerns over advertiser concentration. In the UK, nearly three-quarters of brands spend with three or fewer retail media networks, while WARC Media found that major domestic networks remain heavily dependent on their largest advertisers.
Amazon’s advertising ambitions also extend beyond traditional retail. Its non-retail advertising operations, including Prime Video and Twitch, are projected to generate $6.7 billion in 2027, a figure that would exceed Walmart’s entire 2025 advertising spend if treated as a standalone commerce media business.
Retail media is also moving into broader video and connected television opportunities. Connected TV already accounts for 23 per cent of retail media spending, while WARC expects video-on-demand advertising to overtake global retail media investment by 2028.
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The expansion is creating opportunities for smaller businesses that have traditionally focused on performance advertising. Walmart’s acquisition of Vibe.co points to growing interest in helping smaller brands access channels such as connected TV through retail media ecosystems.
But rapid monetisation carries risks. WARC Media warns that retailers could damage the shopper experience by increasing advertising loads in pursuit of ambitious revenue targets. Research cited in the report found that Amazon, Home Depot, Macy’s and Walmart each display more than 20 advertisements per page on average.
Creative effectiveness is another challenge. Research by Ipsos found that memory encoding for advertisements placed within simulated Walmart and Amazon shopping environments fell by 47 per cent compared with advertisements shown in generic off-site environments.
High-quality creative, however, can make a measurable difference. Among undecided shoppers, stronger creative generated a 12 per cent lift in short-term brand choice, while consumers outside the immediate market showed a 21 per cent performance advantage for higher-quality advertising.
The findings suggest that the next phase of retail media growth will depend less on simply increasing the number of advertisements and more on making commercial content relevant, useful and well integrated into the customer journey. For brands and retailers, the challenge will be to turn growing advertising investment into sustainable value without allowing monetisation to undermine the shopping experience.
