Global advertising expenditure is projected to rise by 11.9 per cent to $1.34 trillion in 2026, as artificial intelligence investment, social media expansion and major international events drive spending despite mounting cost-of-living pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.
The latest forecast from WARC Media indicates that the advertising industry is maintaining strong momentum after recording growth of 10 per cent in both 2024 and 2025. The outlook suggests that businesses continue to prioritise advertising to attract customers, build brand recognition and compete in an increasingly digital marketplace.
Brandspur Brand News reports that social media, search advertising and retail media are expected to account for 66.4 per cent of global advertising expenditure in 2026, with their combined share projected to reach 70 per cent by 2028.
Social media is forecast to record the strongest growth among major advertising channels, with spending expected to climb 21.3 per cent to $394.6 billion this year. WARC projects that investment in the channel will surpass $500 billion in 2028, reflecting its growing importance in how businesses reach consumers.
Retail media spending is expected to increase by 14.3 per cent to $202.1 billion, while search advertising is projected to rise 14.2 per cent to $295.7 billion. Video-on-demand advertising is forecast to grow 15.1 per cent to $48.4 billion, while digital out-of-home advertising is expected to increase 13.7 per cent to $21.7 billion.
The figures highlight a shift towards advertising channels that allow businesses to target specific audiences, track campaign performance and adjust spending as market conditions change. For brands, the growing emphasis on measurable results is making digital platforms an increasingly important part of marketing strategies.
Artificial intelligence is emerging as another major driver of the expansion. Technology companies are investing in advertising to attract users and establish their brands, while established businesses are deploying AI tools to improve audience targeting, create advertising materials and optimise campaigns.
The technology is also changing how consumers discover products and services. As generative search tools and AI assistants become part of online information searches, advertisers are beginning to face a changing landscape in which purchasing decisions may be influenced by new digital platforms.
WARC’s projections also point to a concentration of advertising revenue among a small group of major technology companies. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are expected to capture a combined 59.7 per cent of global advertising spending outside China in 2026, representing $659.6 billion. Their combined share is projected to increase to 61.5 per cent, equivalent to $804.1 billion, by 2028.
The concentration of spending raises important considerations for advertisers deciding how to distribute their marketing budgets. While the platforms offer access to large audiences and sophisticated advertising tools, their growing share of the market also underscores the importance of understanding where advertising expenditure is going and how effectively it reaches consumers.
By product category, technology and electronics is expected to lead advertising growth in 2026, with expenditure forecast to rise 20.7 per cent from the previous year. Travel and transport advertising is projected to increase by 19.3 per cent, followed by automotive at 17.8 per cent. Social media alone is expected to attract 40.2 per cent of advertising expenditure in the technology and electronics category.
Major events, including the Olympics, FIFA World Cup and United States mid-term elections, are also expected to support spending this year by creating opportunities for brands to reach large audiences.
Despite the positive outlook, WARC has cautioned that rising investment is taking place against a backdrop of uneven economic conditions. Although the global economy has remained resilient, pressure on household budgets and the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions could affect consumer demand and business confidence.
For Nigeria’s advertising and marketing industry, the global figures offer insight into the channels attracting investment and the technologies reshaping competition for consumer attention. Brands, agencies, media organisations and digital publishers face growing pressure to understand audience behaviour, demonstrate campaign effectiveness and adapt to changing advertising formats.
The forecast also highlights the potential significance of emerging markets, where advertising expenditure per person remains far below levels recorded in wealthier economies. WARC estimates 2026 advertising spending per capita at $1,395 in the United States, $935 in the United Kingdom and $850 in Austria, compared with $170 in China, $110 in Brazil and $13 in India.
These differences point to varying levels of advertising investment across markets, although actual growth opportunities will depend on local economic conditions, consumer purchasing power and the development of digital infrastructure.
Looking further ahead, WARC expects global advertising expenditure to grow by 8.4 per cent to $1.46 trillion in 2027, before increasing another 7.9 per cent to $1.57 trillion in 2028.
If the projections hold, the global advertising market will be approximately 2.3 times its 2019 size by 2028. The trajectory suggests that AI adoption, digital media and competition for consumer attention will remain central to the industry’s expansion, even as businesses contend with economic uncertainty and increasingly cautious spending by households.
