H2 2017 Outlook Report ‘After the Rain’


Executive Summary

Global Economy: Positive outlook buoyed by strong EM growth 

As economic activities gain momentum and commodity prices recover from their troughs in 2016, consensus estimates see scope for an improvement in global econom-ic growth in 2017. Global trade volumes are expected to rise 4.0% in 2017 and 3.8% in 2018 vs. an estimated 2.5% in 2016*. Even as these rates remain below “historical norms”, optimism for the global economy resonated across global equity markets during the first half of the year.

Nigeria: Set for a rebound as macro narratives change 

But now, the tides are turning for the Nigerian economy. In contrast to lack of decisive-ness in policy actions and absence of pro-market reforms observed in the first 18 months of the Buhari-led government, a long list of market-friendly policy decisions has come through.

The economy is poised for a comeback. Investor confidence is strength-ening and Nigeria seems to be open for business again. That said, the socio-political landscape remains volatile.

Naira Assets: As good as it gets? 

Despite rising optimism, the performance of Naira assets over H2-17 still hinges on a mix of factors. For equities, the sustenance of re-cent positive momentum means that the improvement in the policy environment must outpace that of Q2-17. To this effect, macroeconomic variables may have to outperform estimates resulting in corporate earnings surprises while shocks in the system stay rather soft.

Download the H2 2017 Outlook Report Here.