Entering 2018, the global macro picture is benign! Growth is strengthening in its most synchronized form since the global financial crisis, stock markets are testing new highs, interest rates are well anchored, corporate earnings are turning up, commodity prices are humming along quite nicely and consumers and businesses appear energized.
2017 was a good year for the global economy, as what started out to be a tip-toe into the year saw the market break into a run as the year progressed. Going into 2018, we ask: “can we hope for another cheery year”?
Global growth is expected to continue, though at a more moderating pace. First, the increased breadth and depth of recovery and growth in the world economy points to a sustainability of this expansion. Second, we note that while there is a synchronized global recovery, the economic cycles themselves are not synchronized, this points to a longevity of this expansion. Additionally, financial, political and geopolitical risks remain a fundamental downside to our outlook.
Nonetheless, Emerging and Developing Economies are expected to lead the way with a GDP growth of 4.9% (up from 4.6% in 2017). In Advanced Economies, GDP growth is expected to moderate to 2.0% (from 2.2% in 2017), amid capex and fiscal policy stimulus.
United Capital Nigeria.