Afrinvest (West Africa) Limited released its 2018 Outlook for the Nigerian Economy and Financial Market in a report titled, ‘The Virtuous Cycle… Again!’. The report offers an assessment of growth prospects in 2018, in light of the notable recovery of the Nigerian economy in 2017.
Owing to an upturn in commodity prices, impressive performance in the Oil sector, and adoption of pro-market FX reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Nigerian financial market has clearly become more attractive to foreign and local investors. The report, therefore, highlights current macroeconomic conditions that have set the stage to consolidate on the growth we began to see in Q2:2017.
According to the Group Managing Director of Afrinvest, Ike Chioke, “2017 was indeed a year of recovery for the Nigerian economy. Through deliberate efforts from the government, we saw a rebound in economic activity, as well as strengthened investor confidence and business sentiments. It is against the backdrop of these improving macroeconomic conditions that we have taken a positive outlook for 2018, as we expect the economy to continue on its positive trajectory since its recovery.
“Akin to our last 2-year bull run in 2012 and 2013, we have been ushered into a “virtuous cycle” marked by stability in external sector indicators and fiscal balance, declining inflationary pressures, improving growth profile, increasingly accommodative monetary policy and strong capital market returns. In these early days, we have seen market capitalization and the NSE All-Share Index at record highs, and we advocate a cautious, active trading strategy in the current bull market.”
The report also addresses the slow recovery of the Non-Oil sector and proffers strong prospects for growth in anticipation of expansion in fiscal spending, deceleration of inflation rate and increase in private investments. Furthermore, it emphasizes our 2-year long theme calling for structural reforms from policymakers to build long-term macroeconomic resilience to mitigate fault lines that could break the cycle and plunge the economy back into a vicious cycle of macroeconomic instability and weak capital market returns.
The Afrinvest 2018 Outlook Report, The Virtuous Cycle… Again! can be downloaded for free HERE
Click to download the full report
Executive Summary
- Global Macroeconomic Highlights
- Domestic Macroeconomic Highlights
- Price Level… Benign Outlook as Policy Makers Hold-off on Supply Side Reforms
- Near-Term Growth Outlook … Oil Sector Low Base Effect Will Remain, Key Driver,
- Monetary Policy Outlook… Easing Cycle to Enter Full Gear despite Stable Benchmark Rate
- Fiscal Policy Outlook… Focus on Reducing Debt Service Obligations amidst Rising Expenditure Pattern
- Polity Stability: Security Concerns and Ethnic Divide Setting Stage for Volatile Election Cycle
- Nigerian Financial Markets
- Recovery Driven Fundamentals to Shape Investment Strategy
- The Virtuous Cycle… Again!
About Afrinvest (West Africa) Limited
Afrinvest (West Africa) Limited is a wealth advisory firm involved in investment banking, securities trading, asset management and investment research with a focus on West Africa.
