Afrinvest (West Africa) Limited released its 2019 Outlook for the Nigerian Economic and Financial Markets today in a report titled, ‘On the Precipice’. The report offers insights into the social, economic and political risks and potentials that will affect the growth of the economy in 2019 and beyond.
2018 was a year of slow, anaemic growth in the Nigerian economy. While 2017 heralded a resurgence of the Nigerian economy, some of the widespread challenges that induced the recession in 2016 to persist, threatening to be exposed by any substantial economic pressure. This report, therefore, outlines critical factors that will determine whether we move to a more accelerated phase of growth or are plunged into a cycle of contraction.
READ: Afrinvest Economy and Financial Markets Outlook 2019: On the Precipice
According to the Group Managing Director of Afrinvest, Ike Chioke, “We see the 2019 general elections as an opportunity to press the reset button and set the country on a path of sustainable growth and prosperity. 2018 may have delivered some positives but growth remains far below long-term levels of 6 – 7%. Furthermore, unemployment and underemployment numbers have gone up, Nigeria has been named the poverty capital of the world and there are elevated security threats across regions.
Our outlook for 2019 is, therefore, largely dependent on the outcome of the general elections. At present, the race appears to be keenly contested by the incumbent party – APC – and the major opposition party – PDP. Whatever the outcome, one thing is certain: the winner must hit the ground running with the energy and political will to implement market-driven reforms that will boost economic growth and development.
Our report, therefore, provides scenario-based projections for the economy. We have outlined a base case where the incumbent returns and there is policy continuity; a pessimistic case where political tensions escalate leading to widespread insecurity; and an optimistic case where regardless of the winner, we see exciting policy reforms that can deliver real growth.
To download the Afrinvest Economy and Financial Markets Outlook 2019: On the Precipice for free, click here.
Afrinvest (West Africa) Limited is a leading independent investment banking firm with a focus on West Africa, and active in four principal areas: investment banking, securities trading, asset management, and investment research.
