Election Watch: Nigeria to hold too-close-to-call elections on Feb 16

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  • Ruling party APC is weakened by defections, its performance results are disappointing
  • Largest opposition party has regained its strength but remains associated with corruption
  • Main issues that top election campaign are security, economy and corruption
  • There is a risk of political crisis if election results are too close

Nigerians will vote in federal legislative and presidential elections on Feb 16 in the largest democratic vote on the African continent. Some 84.3mn people are eligible to cast their vote in what is expected to be one of the most closely contested elections since civilian rule was restored in 1999. A full 28 out of 36 states will also hold governorship and state legislative elections not long after, on Mar 2. The elections will take place amid a sharp deterioration in security across the federation, which will affect the vote in the north and the volatile Middle Belt. There are several candidates for the presidential vote, but it is really a race between the incumbent President Buhari (75) of the APC and Atiku Abubakar (71) of the largest opposition party PDP. Nigeria’s young democracy was tested and strengthened during an unprecedented and peaceful transition of power in 2015 when the PDP lost the elections to the now ruling APC. The election will be fiercely contested, and a challenged or inconclusive result might even trigger a political crisis because of the infrastructural and logistics challenges related to holding a run-off within the legal timeframe.

President Buhari will seek re-election after largely failing to deliver on his key 2015 promises, namely fighting endemic corruption and tackling Nigeria’s security challenges. Buhari is a Muslim from the north who was Nigeria’s military ruler from 1984 to 1985. Many Nigerians, especially in the north, believe his military background and strong stance against corruption and indiscipline is what Nigeria needs to neutralize the numerous security challenges. Buhari’s first term was marred by his lack of political energy and creativity, as well as health issues. Atiku Abubakar, who is the former vice-president from 1999 to 2007, is also a Muslim from the north. Atiku can mount a serious challenge to the incumbent, who spent seven months in treatment for an undisclosed ailment abroad and whose national approval rating is at just 40%. He is well-known across the business circles and is one of the country’s richest politicians but he has also faced several allegations of fraud and in many circles, his name is allegedly synonymous with high-level graft. This will not be the first time Buhari and Atiku have faced one another. Both men contested the 2007 presidential elections, coming a distant second and third behind the PDP’s Umaru Yar’Adua. In 2014, the two met again in the APC primaries, with Buhari emerging victorious.

CHALLENGES

Growing insecurity

Nigeria’s security challenges have topped the 2019 election campaigns. A recent poll found that the majority of Nigerians (65%) consider the country as not safe, with respondents listing armed robbery (25%), pastoral conflicts (16%) and kidnapping (8%) as the top three security challenges.

At present, Nigeria is facing peace and security challenges due to:

  • Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast;
  • a resurgence of separatist movements in the southeast and south-south;
  • militants in the Niger Delta;
  • violent attacks over farming and cattle grazing rights in the Middle Belt;
  • ritual killings in the south-west;
  • communal violence in some parts of the country;
  • proliferation of small arms and light weapons;
  • spates of kidnapping and armed robbery attacks.

These security challenges have dire consequences for stability and sustainable development. Further consequences include the growing culture of impunity by individuals and groups resulting in avoidable violence that often lead to colossal loss of lives, wanton destruction of property and national assets.

President Buhari was elected in 2015 because he was seen as a strong man who can decisively win the war against terror in the northeast. Under his watch, however, the security in the Middle Belt has deteriorated sharply and secession sentiments intensified in the south-east.

Economy

One of Buhari’s main challenges during his first term has been the struggling economy. Severe forex shortages have brought economic activity to a halt and many manufacturing companies laid workers off and cut production. Thus, Buhari has presided over Nigeria’s most severe economic recession in recent history and the economic recovery that started in 2017 is sluggish and frail. The slump in oil prices has been the main driver of this economic slowdown, but Buhari’s inadequate
economic policies and staunch opposition to naira devaluation had pushed the economy into severe recession. Voters see the economy as Buhari’s main weakness, despite the announced social intervention programs. Given this context, Atiku is promising to revitalise the economy by launching badly needed reforms. He once headed the country’s Economic Management Team and he managed Nigeria’s privatization process. Atiku brags with his experience and claims he has a working and practical knowledge of how the Nigerian economy works. His economic platform includes the overhaul of the central bank, privatization of the state oil corporation and liberalization of the FX rate. He has strong ties with corporate Nigeria and is well known among the business circles.

Corruption

President Buhari won the 2015 elections by promising to fight insecurity and corruption. He drew from his reputation as a strict military man, who is tough on corruption and indiscipline. However, Nigerians rate his efforts as disappointing. In particular, critics accuse the government of only targeting political opponents, while allowing its cronies to go free. The opposition had blamed him for witch-hunting. Yet, Buhari has a clear advantage in this area. The PDP is remembered for
plundering the state during its previous sixteen years in power. As part of the administration, Atiku has been associated with PDP’s corrupt practices and this is a major setback for him.

MAIN POLITICAL PLAYERS

All Progressives Congress (APC)

In 2013, Nigeria’s three biggest opposition parties merged into the centre-left All Progressives Congress (APC), outgrowing their regional support and consolidating their power bases from the various geopolitical zones of the federation. The APC won the 2015 elections and its presidential candidate, Muhamadu Buhari came as a messiah promising he would run a government of change. Buhari received impactful support from the south-west, the east and the north, and was projected as a truly national politician and a remodelled democrat.

However, four years later, analysts say the APC and Buhari over-promised and under-delivered. Critics called Buhari “Baba go slow”, because of his lack of energy for political and economic reforms. The president’s continual medical leaves abroad impaired governance during his first term. In 2015, Buhari had the support of Nigeria’s former leaders, both military and civilian, but he has lost that support. Furthermore, the APC was rocked by a spate of defections last year. The heads of House of Reps and Senate have left the APC to join the opposition party PDP. Other members of parliament also defected to the PDP and the ruling party is believed to have a slim majority in the Senate. The APC may not survive if President Buhari is voted out of power.

President Buhari will rely on the advantage of incumbency and the reputation of his running mate, VP Yemi Osibanjo. Osinbajo is a former Lagos attorney-general and commissioner for justice as well as a senior pastor in the influential Redeemed Christian Church of God. He had delivered the key south-west zone to Buhari and the APC in the 2015 elections. Osinbajo was the acting president during Buhari’s extended medical leaves abroad. He quickly proved himself as a man of action and a business-friendly technocrat.

People’s Democratic Party (PDP)

The right-of-centre PDP was the inheritor of decades of military rule in 1999 and held power until President Jonathan’s defeat in 2015. Because of that, the party has traditionally appealed to Nigeria’s business community, which developed during the military regime. The PDP has been struggling for survival since it lost power in 2015. The return of some of the key politicians who defected from the party has helped the party recover and regain its strength.

Atiku Abubakar picked Peter Obi, a Christian, as a running mate for the elections to add a counterweight to his election bid. Obi has expertise in finance and business; he is youthful and has recognition and respect. Peter Obi is an ethnic Igbo from the south-east, and his nomination took many by surprise. It was widely believed Atiku’s running mate will come from the south-west, because of the strategic importance of the region. However, the south-west is much more divided, while Peter Obi can rally the Igbos and the south-east zone. Igbos held the vice presidential position way back in the 1979-83 and the region feels neglected and isolated. In addition, the heavy handling of the Biafra separatist move in 2017, has most likely turned the region against Buhari’s administration. By choosing an Igbo, Atiku is looking to tap in the prevailing sentiments in the south-east.

OPINION POLLS AND THE RISK OF ELECTION INTERFERENCE

Opinion polls are not widely done and the ones done have produced unconvincing results. However, Nigeria is prone to election interference as was revealed by the Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal. The government had launched an investigation into allegations that the firm was hired to interfere with Buhari’s campaigns in 2011 and 2015, on behalf of the PDP and then-president Goodluck Jonathan. Nigeria’s vast number of ethnic groups and rivalries makes the country
vulnerable to targeted campaigns and fake news. The main parties are already violently competing for power using an appeal to religious and ethnic identities through social media.

ELECTORAL FRAMEWORK

Nigerians elect a president and vice president, members of the federal parliament, and state governors and state legislators for terms of four years. The president is elected with a qualified plurality vote, i.e., the candidate should get most of the votes and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states to be elected. In the likely cases that neither Jonathan nor Buhari garner the needed vote, a run-off election will be held 7 days after the announcement of the election result.

The parliament is bicameral, with a 360-seat House of Representatives and a 109-seat Senate. The members of federal and local parliaments are elected with a plurality vote (first-past-the-post) in single-member constituencies. State governors are also elected with a qualified plurality vote, i.e., they should get a plurality of votes plus 25% of votes in two-thirds of the state’s local government areas if they are to win in the first round.

 

Credits: CEE Market Watch