Election Over Now the Heavy Lifting – LBS Executive Breakfast Session (March 2019)

A man walks past smoke emitted from a dump in the city of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, on February 14, 2017. The Nigerian city of Port Harcourt used to be known as "The Garden City", since late last year, black soot has been falling from the sky, scaring and angering residents who claim nothing is being done to protect their health. / AFP PHOTO / PIUS UTOMI EKPEI (Photo credit should read PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP/Getty Images)

Between the Poor and the Very Poor

  • I did not vote because all politicians are thieves- Ismaila Ahmed
  • My business is suffering and things are hopeless and I voted for the opposition – Aghedo Imasuen
  • Anything is better than what I am facing. I am unemployed and looking for work. I have no PVC – Olayinka Oyebode
  • Things are getting better slowly after the massive looting of years. I voted for Buhari- Sanusi Yakubu
  • The Customs seized all the goods that I bought from an importer. I am finished. I did not vote- Chukuwuma Okeke
  • I got Trader Moni and I can now get forex when I want. I voted for APC- Tobilola Olayemi

The February election was a class war between the poor and the very poor. The middle class has been almost squeezed out of existence and the few rich continue to bilk the system. Our analysis reveals very interesting trends. These are anecdotal and empirical data showing that the turnout was highest in the states where the APC won and lowest in the PDP states.

The APC won a plural majority and were supported by the very poor and emotional voters. The average income per capita in the APC states is $1,545. It becomes more glaring when it is APC minus Lagos state (the income per capita now falls to $1,353). On the other hand, the PDP states accounted for an average income per capita of $2,585.

The average FAAC per state in the PDP states is N88.24bn. Whilst in the APC states it is N55.79bn. Again, if you take Lagos away from the APC states it falls sharply to N52.39bn.  More interesting is the fact that of the 10 states with the highest WAEC scores, 6 are PDP states (Abia, Imo, Bayelsa, Delta, Enugu and Ebonyi).

Also in this edition, you will see how voter sentiment in states with high unemployment and inflation differs from the others.

These data points suggest that the economic recovery is modest and sustainable. The very poor states are more politically active than the poor states. There are no rich states in Nigeria. Buhari 3.0 will and must deliver rapid and sustainable economic growth to the impatient and emotional voters of 2019. The economic agenda is clear. Nigeria must grow at 4% in 2020/2021 or will languish for the next 5-10 years.

The attached slides are a synopsis of the state of the economy and the post-election outlook as presented by Bismarck Rewane at the LBS Breakfast Session.

Download the LBS Executive Breakfast Session (March 2019) full report here…