At the start of the year, we highlighted three key events that the global economy and invariably markets, would have to come to terms with, namely: trade, monetary policy, and geopolitics. A rear-view glance at how these themes have metamorphosed shows a roller-coaster of twists and turns.
On trade, optimism that earlier trailed the possibility of a successful resolution of the US-China trade talks has since dissipated on an escalation of tensions. On the other hand, monetary policy that was headed for a hiking spree, made a U-turn along the year as most central banks adopted a less aggressive stance in the face of recurring projections of a slowdown in global growth.
Meanwhile, geopolitics did not fail to take the center stage. This ranges from the numerous BREXIT debates and votes that led to the exit of the UK’s prime minister, to the outcomes of several elections that held during the year and more recently, the fears of fresh war in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, markets were caught in a whirlwind of sentiments.
Peering into potential outcomes for H2-19, there is a cause for caution as acceleration in global growth is muted, the bond market is flashing worrisome signs, and risks that could upset markets abound. Therefore, we acknowledge that these factors remain at the front burner of economic projections.
United Capital Plc Research (UCR)