Nigeria’s GDP Rises By 2.28% On The Back Of Oil & Gas, Telecoms In Q3 2019

Q3’20 GDP Numbers: Glimpse of Hope Amidst the Inevitable?

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.28% (year-on-year), in real terms, in the third quarter of 2019. Compared to the third quarter of 2018 which recorded a growth of 1.81%, the real GDP growth rate observed in the third quarter of 2019 indicates an increase of 0.47% points. Relative to the second quarter of 2019, which recorded a growth rate of 2.12%, Q3 2019 represents an increase of 0.17% points.* On a quarter on quarter basis, however, real GDP grew by 9.23%. The growth rate in Q3 2019 represents the second-highest quarterly rate recorded since 2016.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N37,806,924.41 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher compared to the aggregate of N33,368,049.14 million recorded in the third quarter of 2018, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 13.30%. The growth rate is, however, lower relative to rates recorded in the third quarter of 2018 by –0.28% points and the rates recorded in the preceding quarter by –0.71% points. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.

The Oil Sector

In Q3 2019, Nigeria recorded average daily oil production of 2.04 million barrels per day (mbpd), its highest in more than three years. This output was 0.1mbpd higher than the daily average production of 1.94mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018 and 0.02mbpd higher than the revised oil production levels in Q2 2019 of 2.02mbpd.

The real growth of the oil sector was 6.49% (year-on-year) in Q3 2019 indicating an increase of 9.40% points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018. The rate was lower by –0.68% points when compared to Q2 2019 which was 7.17%.* Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 18.88% in Q3 2019. The sector contributed 9.77% to total real GDP in Q3 2019, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2018 as well as the preceding quarter, when it accounted for 9.38% and 8.98% respectively.

The Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 1.85% in real terms during the reference quarter. This is –0.48% points lower when compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but 0.20% points higher than the second quarter of 2019. During the quarter, the sector was driven mainly by the Information and Communication sector. Other drivers were Agriculture, Mining and Quarrying, Transportation and Storage, and Manufacturing. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 90.23% to the nation’s GDP, slightly lower than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2018 (90.62%), and in the second quarter of 2019 (91.02%).

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