Outlook & Investment Strategies for 2020

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Executive Summary

International Monetary Fund projects global output to grow by 3.4% in 2020, higher than 3.0% forecast for 2019. The Bretton Woods institution predicated its global growth forecast on increased output in emerging and developing economies, especially in Asia and Europe, which are currently witnessing strong domestic demand and rising wages amid monetary and fiscal stimuli. This is in spite of the ongoing global trade tensions, especially between the U.S. and China as well as economic and trade uncertainties over the Brexit saga – indeed, the IMF projects slower growth rates for the U.S. and Chinese economies of 2.1%
and 5.8% respectively in 2020 (from 2.4% and 6.1% projected for 2019).

The IMF projects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 2.5% in 2020 (higher than 2.3% forecast for 2019). We expect the Nigerian economy to benefit from solid crude oil revenues which should support economic growth in 2020 as well as provide a boost to its external buffers. Sustained expansionary fiscal policies should, especially from the angle of infrastructural development around the country should also provide at least minimal support to growth giving lag effects due to their long gestation period.

We expect the general price level of goods and services to be upbeat in 2020, mainly as a result of structural factors and less of consumer demand. Continued border closure by the fiscal authority, premised on the need to support local industries, is expected to exacerbate cost-push inflation – although there are expectations that the protectionist measure should stimulate domestic output and improve the balance of payments.

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We believe the monetary authority will remain aligned with the fiscal authority’s economic growth objective by seeking to create and sustain conditions that will boost liquidity in the financial system in order to drive down interest rates to a single digit. Thus, we expect interest rates to remain suppressed in 2020. In a complementary move, we suspect the Monetary Policy Rate may be adjusted downwards from 13.50% to 13% in order to further signal its expansionary monetary policy regime.

We expect 2020 to be a favourable year for equities against the backdrop of low-interest-rate environment. This is because companies would be able to access funds at a cheaper cost, thus reducing their interest expense and positively impacting their bottom lines. Also, investors are expected to make a switch from fixed income securities yielding negative real returns to equities presenting positive real returns both in terms of dividend yields as well as possible capital appreciation especially in the first quarter of 2020.

Download the Outlook & Investment Strategies for 2020 here

Cowry Asset Management Limited (COWRY)

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Latest News

The Boutique Hotel Under Gudou Holdings Co., Ltd. Further Expands to Panyu District, Guangzhou— Guangzhou Gudou Quanfeng Residence Officially Opens on 10 February 2021

HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach - 25 February 2021 - Gudou Holdings Limited ("Gudou Holdings" or "Company", which together with its subsidiaries, is referred to as the "Group", SEHK stock code: 8308), is pleased to announce that Guangzhou Gudou Quanfeng Residence, the Group's first boutique hotel project in Panyu District, Guangzhou City, has officially opened on 10 February 2021.

Guangzhou Gudou Quanfeng Residence has 33 guest rooms, including 2 two-bedroom suites and 3 three-bedroom suites. The design is modelled on one of the ancient Lingnan (southern Chinese) architectural style, "Guanyindou", which features the shape of two handles of a wok on either sides of the roof of a building in the ancient town of Shawan, Panyu. Carrying on the tradition of the "Gudou" brand, the hotel organizes one-stop leisure and entertainment activities and are installed with comprehensive facilities to provide a new experience for tourists who prefer to enjoy the finer things in life in the traditional ambience.

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Guangzhou Gudou Quanfeng Residence is conveniently located in the Hills Ecool Creative Park in Panyu, which occupies a total site area of​​340,000 square meters at the southern tip of Panyu District. The hotel is easily accessible by a developed network of roads around the Hills, including South China Expressway, Xinguang Express, Nansha Port Express and other highways. Therefore, it is easy to travel from the hotel to Zhujiang New Town in Guangzhou, and thus elsewhere in the Pearl River Delta. It takes five minutes to reach the Chimelong Paradise, and the Blessing Colorful World within easy reach. The Clifford Station on Metro Line 21 will also be opened in 2021 and it is only an about 10-minute walk from the hotel. In the Panyu Golden Valley Eko Creative Park, a head office for environmental operation of business and a district for shopping and leisure will be built. Such plan has earned the park a reputation as "China's Number One Low-Carbon Community". The rising occupancy rates of the office buildings in Panyu will also mean an increase in business travelers who, in turn, can drive up the occupancy rates of the hotel and the spending there.

There are many well-known tourist attractions near Guangzhou Gudou Quanfeng Residence, including Chimelong Paradise, Blessing Colorful World, Dafu Mountain Forest Park, Lianhua Mountain Tourist Area, Shawan Ancient Town and IKEA Store, which is popular with young people. The Evergrande Football Stadium, which can seat 100,000 spectators, is also expected to be completed in 2022 and will be able to accommodate tourists who stay in Guangzhou for two days and one night.

Mr. HON Chi Ming, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of the Group, said, "The Group is very satisfied and encouraged by the opening of the Guangzhou Gudou Quanfeng Residence. The hotel is conveniently located in an area where there are comprehensive facilities. Therefore, the area is expected to attract a large number of tourists. Since the apartment hotel has already been renovated and equipped with upgraded facilities and soft furnishings, not much more capital will be required for putting the hotel in operation in a short time. This means cost-effectiveness at the hotel and can quickly responding to the trend of tourism recovery. Looking ahead, tourism property development will remain the focus of the Group's business development. Specifically, we will actively expand our tourism property business in Guangdong Province, provide more quality services to meet customer needs, and increase investors' awareness of Gudou Holdings' brand. All this is aimed at creating better returns."


About Gudou Holdings Limited

Gudou Holdings is a hot spring resort and hotel operator and a tourism property developer in the People's Republic of China ("PRC"). It principally engages in (i) the operation and management of the hot spring resort and hotel facilities of Gudou Hot Spring Resort, which is a national AAAA-level tourist area, and provision of consultancy and/or management services; and (ii) the development and sale of tourism properties in Guangdong Province. The "Gudou" brand is a well-known brand of integrated hot spring resort in the PRC. Gudou Holdings operates six theme hotels, among which Royal SPA Hotel was rated as a five-star hot spring by the National Hot Spring Tourism Enterprise Star Rating Committee in 2020. The resort complexes with a variety of leisure and recreational facilities, including hot spring facilities, hotels, commercial stores, food and beverages outlets, recreational waterpark, a spa centre, a conference centre, parks, tourist attractions and other ancillary leisure and recreational facilities. The Group's newly established Guangdong Gudou Quanfeng Cultural Tourism Development Co., Ltd. has further expanded its presence to Guangzhou with the official opening of Guangzhou Gudou Quanfeng Residence on 10 February 2021, marking the latest headway following the official operation commencement of Gudou Spring Superior Hotel, located in the center of Jiangmen on 15 January 2021.


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