April 2020 Inflation Review – Inflation Accelerates Amid Pandemic Risk, Ramadan Arrival

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In the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the overall consumer price index – a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by consumers – was up 12.34% y/y in Apr’20 from 12.26% y/y in Mar’20.

Retail inflation inched higher on the back of a faster rise in both food and core prices. Annual food inflation accelerated to 15.03% y/y in Apr’20 (Mar’20: 14.98% y/y) while core inflation printed at 9.98% y/y (Mar’20: 9.73% y/y). Prices of food items like bread, fish, tubers, vegetables & fruits and bread & cereals were the main drivers of inflation in Apr’20.

COVID-19 price premiums inflate core prices y/y

Save for the Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel sub-index, all the other sub-indices recorded a faster rise in prices compared to Mar’20. However, core prices rose y/y at a faster pace (+25bps) than food prices (5bps). This was due to a faster rise in prices in some COVID-19 prone sectors (health, transport and restaurant & hotels) compared to food prices. The faster rise in prices in the vulnerable sectors reflects price premiums for services, amid steady demand, due to increased risk associated with rendering those services. Specifically, we note that the prices of health and transport services rose 23bps and 22bps m/m respectively in Apr’20.

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Ramadan arrival, lockdown pressure m/m food inflation

On a monthly basis, inflation rose by 18bps to 1.02% m/m (Vetiva estimate: 0.82% m/m) on a faster rise in food prices – compared to core prices. Food inflation rose by 24bps to 1.18% m/m (Mar’20: 0.94% m/m) as the demand for essential food products increased with the arrival of Ramadan.

Across sub-national, states that implemented some form of mobility restriction (including Lagos, Kaduna, Akwa Ibom and Ondo) early in the month recorded steeper rises in food inflation – above the national average-, reflecting disruption to food supply chains and its attendant impact on food prices.

Inflationary pressures mount on supply disruptions

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In the current month, we expect the headline inflation to print at 12.43% y/y, due to an anticipated rise in both food and core inflation. We expect food inflation to rise further to 15.09% y/y, as mobility restrictions persisted in May with more states involved from the start of the month. We also expect core inflation to inch higher to 10.07% y/y, as we anticipate that the pressure on transport and health service prices will persist through the month.

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In 2020, we expect the average inflation to inch higher to 11.86% y/y (2019: 11.39% y/y), on the back of a faster rise in both food and core prices. This is stronger than our previous estimate of 11.44%, as inflationary pressures continue to mount on pandemic-induced supply disruptions and impending price increases. We expect food inflation to come in higher at 14.10% y/y (2019: 13.73% y/y) as mobility restrictions – aimed at containing the spread of the virus – continue to disrupt food distribution, resulting in artificial scarcity and pressuring food prices.

Also, we expect core inflation to average 9.86% y/y in 2020, higher than 9.16% y/y recorded in 2019. Core price pressures could stem from the continued pressure on health and transport service prices, as the local outbreak persists. Also, a much stronger recovery in oil prices could prompt an upward review of the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), contributing to inflationary pressure across a number of other sectors. There are also indications that electricity subsidy will be removed by Jul’20, further adding to our expectation of accelerating core inflation in 2020.

Taking the build-up in inflationary pressure into consideration, we expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to maintain its current monetary policy stance, amid a rise in external and fiscal risks. A rate cut could be counterproductive for inflation, amid a souring economic outlook, while a hike could undermine ongoing efforts to stimulate growth. We believe the CBN will be more focused on the transmission of its unconventional policies to the economy, rather than taking action.

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April 2020 Inflation Review - Inflation Accelerates Amid Pandemic Risk, Ramadan Arrival - Brand SpurApril 2020 Inflation Review - Inflation Accelerates Amid Pandemic Risk, Ramadan Arrival - Brand Spur

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April 2020 Inflation Review - Inflation Accelerates Amid Pandemic Risk, Ramadan Arrival - Brand SpurApril 2020 Inflation Review - Inflation Accelerates Amid Pandemic Risk, Ramadan Arrival - Brand Spur

Latest News

Next Meats, Purveyor of the World’s First Plant-based Yakiniku Meats, Is Now in Singapore

The Tokyo-based startup makes its debut in the alt-protein hotspot of Singapore

 

  • Next Meats has collaborated with Aburi-EN to deliver two new meal sets
  • Made with soybean proteins, the Kalbi contains no chemical additives or animal ingredients


SINGAPORE - Media OutReach - 14 April 2021 - Next Meats, a purveyor of the world's first plant-based yakiniku meats, is making its debut in the alternative protein hotspot, Singapore! The Japanese alternative meat company has collaborated this time with popular Japanese restaurant Aburi-EN, which will offer two types of set meals using the NEXT Kalbi (boneless short rib) for the very first time. Made largely from soy proteins, the NEXT Kalbi contains double the amount of protein and half the fats than that of regular meat and even more, it does not contain any chemical additives or cholesterol due to its lack of animal ingredients. Now, Singaporeans can enjoy yakiniku without the guilt!


April 2020 Inflation Review - Inflation Accelerates Amid Pandemic Risk, Ramadan Arrival - Brand Spur

From left to right: Premium Kalbi Don Set and Stamina Teishouku Set

The two new menus available at Aburi-EN are the Kalbi Don Set (S$13.80) and the Stamina Teishoku (S$15.80) — which are available for a limited time only. Next Meats has specifically chosen to work with Aburi-EN as they are a Japanese grilled-meat specialist. The two menus are the culmination of many months of research and development, and they will also be Aburi-EN's first-ever plant-based dishes.


April 2020 Inflation Review - Inflation Accelerates Amid Pandemic Risk, Ramadan Arrival - Brand Spur

For the Kalbi Don Set, Next Meat's Kalbi is grilled and served atop a bowl of fragrant Japanese steamed rice. Equally indulgent, the Stamina Teishoku features the Kalbi stir-fried with cabbage along with egg imported from Okinawa. The meat is then served with fragrant Japanese steamed rice, salad, pickles and miso soup. For both dishes, the meats are glazed with a special homemade sauce that packs an irresistible umami punch.

Both the Kalbi Don Set and Stamina Teishoku will be available at all Aburi-EN stores from April to July 2021.

An advocate of sustainable food production and better food security

The NEXT Kalbi is one of Next Meats' innovative offerings, which includes other plant-based delicacies such as the NEXT burger and NEXT gyudon (beef bowl). The company champions the importance of saving the planet and humanity through reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (which is produced from meat consumption and animal agriculture) and utilizing biotechnology to combat protein deficiency.

Through extensive research and development, Next Meats has culminated the knowhow on using molecular binding to mould vegetable proteins from powder. Buoyed by state-of-the-art, proprietary technologies, the company has successfully created vegan substitutes that replicate the texture of real meat.

About Next Meats

Hailing from Tokyo, Next Meats is a food-tech venture company that specialises in the research and development of Japanese-style alternative meat products. Its journey of product development began in 2017, and the company was officially established in 2020. Its portfolio of products includes plant-based burger patties, gyudon and yakiniku meats.

Social Media for Next Meats

Facebook: /nextmeats.singapore

Instagram: @nextmeats_singapore

Hashtags: #nextmeats #nextmeats_sg #japaneseplantbased


About Aburi-EN

Aburi-EN is Singapore's leading Japanese Grill restaurant chain, best known for delicious high quality grilled donburi bowls. Signature dishes include the Premium Buta Don with grilled chestnut-fed pork, Wagyu Karubi Don, and the Wagyu Stamina Don, made using A4/A5 Miyazaki Wagyu, which has won Japan's "National Wagyu Award" for 3 consecutive years, among many others. The homemade sauces give the meats and dishes an extra umami-ness. Aburi-EN is also known for affordable highballs and Japanese sours, which pair perfectly with the Aburi dishes.

Social Media for Aburi-EN

Facebook: /aburiensg

Instagram: @aburien.sg

Hashtags: #aburiensg #aburiendonburi #aburienjapanesegrill

Outlets

- Isetan Scotts:

350 Orchard Rd, #01-K1 Shaw House, Singapore 238868

- Causeway Point

1 Woodlands Square, #02-09B Causeway Point, Singapore 738099

- Jem

50 Jurong Gateway Rd, #01-04 Jem, Singapore 608549

- Vivo City

1 Harbourfront Walk, #01-159/160 VivoCity, Singapore 098585

- Novena Square

238 Thomson Rd, #01-89/90, Singapore 307683

- Guoco Tower

1 Wallich St, #B2 - 09, Singapore 078884

- Orchard Central

181 Orchard Central, Central, #01-16 Orchard, 238896

- Suntec City

3 Temasek Blvd, #B1-121 Suntec City Mall, Singapore 038983

- Nex

23 Serangoon Central, #01-63/64/65 Nex, Singapore 556083

Operating Hours

11am – 10pm, Daily

April 2020 Inflation Review - Inflation Accelerates Amid Pandemic Risk, Ramadan Arrival - Brand Spur
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