In its most recent Q3 economic scenarios, Strategy Analytics predicts the US and Western European economies will remain between -4% and -6.6% below the levels for Real GDP at the end of Q4 2019 by the end of 2021.
“The recession is technically over and after the historical declines from the Q2 lockdowns, there is definitely a bounce upward in June and July. The bounce is expected to be short-lived and continued recovery in Q4 and Q1 2021 may be weak,” said Harvey Cohen, President of Strategy Analytics.
In response to continuing questions about the strength of the consumer as well as the conditions facing B2B market, Strategy Analytics through its Consumer Insights Practice is regularly developing scenarios based on perspectives from global forecasting resources.
“We do see some bright spots in smartphones, Smart Home, and even in automotive technologies. The overall economic picture is weak. COVID was responsible for the dramatic downturn, COVID continues to exert a detrimental drag on global economies, and there will be no return to normal economic conditions until this COVID drag is eliminated,” added Cohen.
Scenarios for COVID improvement begin with the availability of an effective vaccine which, optimistically, is expected by year-end 2020. Hesitancy among the US population to be early adopters of a vaccine accelerated into production may lengthen the period for significant immunization until mid-2021.
By that point, the protracted period of high unemployment, weakened consumer balance sheets, and weakened sectors in the US economy will make strong growth difficult.
“We believe we are in a ‘Deep-W’ or ‘Wide-V’ recession where the extraordinary decline of 10% in real GDP in Q2 produces significant damage aggravated by continuing COVID waves that makes for a slow recovery in our scenarios with Real GDP down between -6.6% and -9.2% for the US in 2020,” Harvey Cohen continued.
HEADLINES YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED FROM BRAND SPUR
Nigerian genetics startup 54gene has partnered US firm Illumina to power the creation of a world-class genomics facility in Lagos.
Over 1,000 women of the Magboro Makogi community, through a Coca-Cola Foundation-sponsored program; Catalyst For Change, were trained for over four weeks on relevant skills with more than 200 empowered to start their own businesses.
The Debt Management Office (DMO), on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), has introduced a retail savings product that will be accessible to all income groups – the FGN Savings Bonds.
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Canon has announced a new and easy-to-use desktop scanner, designed with flexible USB and WiFi connectivity, to support small businesses wherever their workspace is set up.