Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2021/22, primarily on growth in soybean output in the United States and South America. Global oilseed production is projected to reach 632 million tons on record plantings, according to a recently released report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Further analysis in the report by Brand Spur revealed that Soybean production is forecast to rise 23 million tons to 386 million, a 6-Percent increase. Production of all oilseeds is forecast to increase, with all but cottonseed and rapeseed reaching at least 10-year records.
Global oilseed consumption is forecast to rise 3 percent in 2021/22, the strongest yearly gain since 2019/20, led by higher China soybean demand reflecting a rebuilding of feed demand following African swine fever. Soybean crush and feed waste consumption are projected to account for more than half of the growth in global oilseed use. Sunflowerseed consumption is up 9 percent and cottonseed consumption up 3 percent as supplies rebound from the current year shortfalls.
Global oilseed trade is forecast higher mostly on greater soybean demand from China, which is projected to account for 60 percent of global soybean imports. Trade-in soybeans and sunflower seed is expected to rise modestly while cottonseed exports are forecast up to a 10-year high on larger exportable supplies.
Global ending stocks are projected to rise modestly on growing China stocks and production gains in exporting countries. This increase is coming as the market rebounds from currently tight stocks which have driven soybean prices to an 8-year high.
Global oilseed meal production is forecast to moderately grow in 2021/22, driven by a rise in soybean and sunflower seed meal output. Global protein meal consumption is expected to climb mostly on robust demand from China.
Trade-in protein meals is expected to grow with higher soybean, sunflower seed, and palm kernel meal exports. Sunflowerseed meal exports are projected to see a strong rebound from the current year while rapeseed, fish, copra, cottonseed, and peanut meal are little changed overall.