FAO’s forecast for global cereal production in 2021 has been lowered marginally since the previous report in June to 2 817 million tonnes, but still 1.7 percent (47.8 million tonnes) higher than in 2020 and would mark a new record high.
The modest month-on-month cutback principally concerns coarse grains, with global production now pegged at 1 513 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes below last month’s expectation. A sharp cut to the Brazilian maize production forecast accounts for the bulk of the expected global decline, as prolonged periods of dry weather have dragged down yield expectations.
The world barley production forecast is also trimmed, owing to a lower production forecast in the European Union, reflecting smaller-than-previously expected plantings, and in several countries in the Near East on widespread dry conditions that have curtailed yield potentials.
These declines more than outweigh upward revisions made to maize production forecasts in China, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Global wheat production prospects were also dented slightly this month, as the dry weather conditions in the Near East have cut back yield prospects.
As a result, the 2021 world wheat output has been lowered by 1 million tonnes to 784.7 million tonnes, still 1.2 per cent higher year on year.
By contrast, the forecast of global rice production in 2021 has undergone a slight upward adjustment since June, as more buoyant area expectations for Iraq and record reported yield outcomes in Argentina and Uruguay outweighed a downward revision for the European Union, where limited water supplies for irrigation are assessed to have curtailed Spanish plantings more than previously envisaged. As a result, a record of 519.5 million tonnes of rice is now expected to be harvested in 2021, up 1.0 percent from 2020.
The forecast of world cereal utilization in 2021/22 has been lowered by 15 million tonnes from the previous month to 2 810 million tonnes, nevertheless still 1.5 percent higher than in 2020/21. The downward revision stems largely from lower-than-earlier-anticipated utilization of maize in China for animal feed, on the expectation of much greater use of other feedstuffs, as well as for industrial purposes.
Despite this downward revision, world total coarse grains utilization is forecast to increase by 0.9 percent from the 2020/21 level, reaching 1 510 million tonnes in 2021/22. By contrast, the 2021/22 global wheat utilization forecast has been lifted since the previous month to 780 million tonnes, now up 2.7 percent from the 2020/21 level.
This month’s upward revision and the projected year-on-year increase in wheat utilization are both largely attributed to greater feed use of wheat driven by its price competitiveness relative to maize. World rice utilization in 2021/22 is pegged at 520.8 million tonnes, up 1.5 percent from the previous season and little changed from June expectations.
Although feed uses are also seen increasing, an anticipated expansion in food use would account for much of this yearly growth, keeping global per caput rice intake firm at close to 54 kilos per person.
World cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2021/22 are now forecast to rise above their opening levels for the first time since 2017/18 following a sharp upward revision of 24 million tonnes made this month to 836 million tonnes, up 2.4 percent from last year’s tight level. Higher maize stocks foreseen in China account for the bulk of this month’s upward revision to world cereal inventories.
Maize inventories in China are now expected to reach 152 million tonnes, nearly 24 million tonnes higher than the previous forecast and up 3.0 million tonnes from their revised opening levels, marking the first year-on-year increase in six years. With this revision, coarse grains stocks in 2021/22 are forecast to rise above their opening levels by 4.0 percent to 354 million tonnes.
By contrast, 2021/22 wheat inventories have been lowered from the previous month but are still forecast to increase by 1.8 percent above their opening levels and reach a record 297 million tonnes, mostly reflecting anticipated buildups in Australia, China, the EU, India, Morocco and Ukraine.
Mirroring a slight upward adjustment to carry-over expectations for Pakistan, FAO’s forecast of world rice stocks at the close of 2021/22 seasons is now pegged at 184.9 million tonnes, which would represent a 0.5-per cent year-on-year increase and the second-highest volume on record.
Based on this month’s revisions to the forecasts of world cereal stocks and utilization, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio for 2021/22 is now expected to hover around 29.0 percent, hence on par with the 2020/21 level.
FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals in 2021/22 has been raised slightly since June and now stands at a record 472 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.8 percent from the 2020/21 volume.
At nearly 235 million tonnes and unchanged from last month, trade-in coarse grains in 2021/22 (July/June) is forecast to remain near its 2020/21 estimated level. Continued large maize purchases from China are seen supporting a record maize trade level in 2021/22, while an expected expansion in sorghum trade is seen offsetting a likely fall in barley imports due to lower anticipated purchases by China, Morocco and Saudi Arabia.
Greater import demand expected from Algeria and Pakistan has lifted FAO’s forecast for world wheat trade in 2021/22 to 189 million tonnes this month, an increase of 2.1 percent from 2020/21 mostly stemming from continued strong demand from several countries in Asia.
International trade in rice in 2021 (January-December) is forecast at 48.2 million tonnes, up marginally from the June forecast, but 6.0 percent above the 2020 volume. A revival in import demand from Bangladesh, alongside rising imports by China, Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria, are forecast to drive this increase, although a likely surge in purchases by Viet Nam (a major rice exporter) is also seen contributing to the year’s global import expansion.
