As the average cost of goods and services continues to decline due to improved macroeconomic stability, gains in the foreign exchange and petroleum sectors, and other factors, inflationary pressure has further decreased.
According to economic intelligence reports from numerous finance and economic firms surveyed yesterday, headline inflation fell in June 2025 for the third consecutive month.
Analysts unanimously agreed that the disinflationary trend was maintained by the stability of the foreign exchange (forex) market, the drop in the price of premium motor spirit, also known as petrol, and other monetary and fiscal policies ahead of tomorrow’s official release of the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
According to independent consumer surveys and econometric models, headline inflation fell for the third consecutive month from 22.97 percent in May 2025 to an average of 22.30 percent in June 2025, a decrease of about 60 basis points. Due to lower food inflation, the headline inflation rate improved by 52 basis points to 23.71 percent in April 2025. For the first time since the January 2025 rebasing, composite inflation increased by 105 basis points to 24.23 percent in March 2025 from 23.18 percent in February 2025.
The CPI’s weight and price reference periods were revised by the NBS in January to better reflect shifts in consumer behaviour and the state of the economy as a whole. In addition to moving the base year closer to the current time frame, which runs from 2009 to 2024, the rebasing also brought about some significant methodological adjustments to enhance the computation procedures. Inflation decreased from 34.80% in December 2024, the pre-rebased period, to 24.48% in January 2025 following the rebasing.
According to Bismarck Rewane’s Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), inflation is predicted to decrease from 22.97% in June to 22.65%. A decline in money supply growth, relative stability in the naira exchange rate, and a N100 drop in PMS price were among the factors that FDC attributed to the decrease, BrandSpur Nigeria news reports.
However, FDC predicted that food inflation would increase from 21.14 percent to 21.56 percent, a 0.42 percent increase. Core inflation is expected to drop from 22.28 percent to 20.94 percent, a 1.34 percent decrease. The body stated: “The inflation numbers could have been worse if not for the relative stability of the exchange rate.”
According to FDC, Dangote Refinery’s additional ex-depot price reduction could further drive down pump prices and possibly reduce inflation. In June 2025, inflation may fall as low as 22.2%, according to Afrinvest West Africa.
Continuing, Afrinvest had this to say: “Our view for the inflation projection is hinged on two major drivers. Firstly, the effect of the CBN’s strategic policy reforms has seen the naira strengthen in June, up 3.6 per cent to close at N1,529.71. Secondly, the high base year effect from last year’s 34.2 per cent inflation reading is a contributing factor.”
The June CPI data is anticipated to demonstrate indications of waning inflationary pressures, according to Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst, FXTM. He claimed that the CBN, which raised interest rates aggressively throughout 2024, might find some respite from ongoing disinflation. He predicted that by June 2025, inflation might fall to 21.4%. In light of increased non-oil exports and a declining dollar, he claimed the recent naira gains contributed to the decline.
In June, Cordros Capital predicted that consumer price inflation would continue to decline. The organisation revealed: “The recent stability of the naira should help moderate imported food prices, partly offsetting the upward pressure on overall food inflation which stems from the ongoing planting season and resultant shortage of farm output. Meanwhile, core inflation is likely to continue its downward trend, supported by stable energy prices and limited exchange rate pass-through.”
According to CardinalStone analysts: “Continued stability in core components and supported by a stable forex and transport backdrop” will help to further moderate inflation in June.
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According to analysts, Dangote Refinery’s investment in 4,000 CNG-powered tankers and its planned rollout of PMS and AGO distribution, which targets large users like marketers, gas dealers, manufacturers, telecom companies, and aviation with free logistics, should alleviate bottlenecks in energy distribution.
CardinalStone went on to say: “This development could exert further downward pressure on energy prices, reinforcing the disinflationary trend.”
In an attempt to strengthen coordination between fiscal and monetary policy and to consolidate the benefits of macroeconomic reforms, Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, and Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), recently met. During their meeting, the two top members of the economic management team discussed ways to combine the ongoing price increases.
Ways to guarantee that macroeconomic gains are not only maintained but also converted into real advantages for the larger economy were also discussed at the meeting. The meeting reviewed current policy reforms and looked at how tighter coordination between the monetary and fiscal levers can help stabilise prices, regain investor confidence, and open up new avenues for growth driven by the private sector, according to the statement released following the meeting.
However, to lessen Nigeria’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) demanded that the government immediately increase support for mechanisation, irrigation infrastructure, and dry season farming. The body claimed that the government needs to continue concentrating on addressing the issues surrounding the transportation of food from farms to urban areas. Improving the efficiency of moving commodities, especially food, from rural to urban markets can help cut post-harvest losses and market prices.
According to LCCI: “While the easing inflation rate is a welcome development, Nigeria must not lose momentum in addressing the structural drivers of inflation. The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry urges the government to act decisively in tackling insecurity, investing in resilient agricultural infrastructure, and improving policy coordination to ensure the current progress becomes sustainable and inclusive.”
