Nigerian businesses are projecting a firmer naira against the United States dollar over the next six months, reflecting growing confidence in foreign exchange stability despite sustained pressure from high interest rates, insecurity and rising operating costs.
The outlook is drawn from the April 2026 Business Expectations Survey published by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which assessed economic sentiment across sectors and regions. The findings indicate that firms are maintaining cautious optimism, even as structural bottlenecks continue to challenge growth and investment decisions.
Brandspur Banking News Desk reports that headline business confidence stood at 3.9 index points during the review period, underscoring moderate optimism amid the apex bank’s restrictive monetary policy stance targeted at inflation control and foreign exchange market stability.
According to the survey, businesses expect a gradual appreciation of the naira in both the short and medium term, supported by anticipated policy improvements and better liquidity conditions. Expansionary economic measures accounted for the largest share of positive sentiment at 19 per cent, while improved access to finance and expectations of economic diversification contributed 13 per cent each.
Sectoral performance showed that the industrial segment recorded the strongest confidence reading at 8.8 index points, pointing to renewed optimism within manufacturing and related production activities. From a regional perspective, firms operating in the North-East expressed the highest level of confidence among all zones surveyed.
Despite the improving outlook for the exchange rate, respondents noted that borrowing costs are expected to remain high, limiting the speed of business expansion. Elevated interest rates, alongside bank charges and competitive pressures, were identified as significant constraints to profitability and investment planning.
The survey also ranked insecurity as the most severe challenge confronting businesses nationwide, followed by high and multiple taxation. Other persistent obstacles included inadequate infrastructure, financial constraints, energy-related concerns, governance issues and broader geopolitical risks, all of which continue to dampen business performance.
The central bank observed that the survey results point to early signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, particularly within the foreign exchange market, following ongoing reforms by fiscal and monetary authorities. Attention is now shifting to the forthcoming 305th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, where investors and businesses are expected to gain clearer signals on interest rate direction after the recent 50-basis-point cut in the Monetary Policy Rate to 26.5 per cent.
