An investment of ₦20,000 made in Nigeria about 18 years ago would need to have grown to well above ₦200,000 by the end of 2025 simply to represent a broadly comparable amount of purchasing power, highlighting the hidden challenge facing Nigerians who invest for the long term in naira-denominated assets.
The issue came into focus after a Nigerian investor revealed that he had invested ₦20,000 in Fidelity Bank shares about 18 years ago and recently checked the holding. He said documents relating to the investment showed the original ₦20,000 value alongside ₦5,332.50 in gains, giving a reported total of about ₦25,332.50.
The figures have triggered discussion not simply about one shareholder’s experience, but about how dramatically the value of the naira has changed since the investment was made. The Brandspur Banking News Desk examined the wider economic picture and found that the purchasing power of the currency has been eroded by years of inflation, while repeated exchange-rate adjustments have also changed the naira value of assets and imported goods.
World Bank data show that Nigeria’s consumer price index rose from 78.84 in 2008 to 699.4 in 2024 on the World Bank’s long-running 2010-based series. That represents an increase of almost nine times in the general price level over the period.
Using that CPI movement as a broad purchasing-power measure, ₦20,000 in 2008 would correspond to roughly ₦177,000 in 2024. Adding the World Bank’s 23 per cent inflation recorded for 2025 would take the equivalent to roughly ₦218,000 by the end of 2025. The calculation is an inflation comparison, not a valuation of the Fidelity Bank investment, and the rebasing of Nigeria’s CPI means it should not be presented as an exact measure of what every individual bought with ₦20,000 in 2008.
That distinction is important. The investor’s reported ₦25,332.50 represents an increase in the number of naira attached to the investment, but the number of naira is not the same thing as purchasing power. If prices rise substantially faster than an investment, an investor can record a nominal gain while still losing wealth in real terms.
Nigeria’s inflation history makes that risk particularly significant. The World Bank records annual consumer-price inflation at 15.7 per cent in 2016, 16.5 per cent in 2017, 12.1 per cent in 2018, 11.4 per cent in 2019, 13.2 per cent in 2020, 17.0 per cent in 2021, 18.8 per cent in 2022, 24.7 per cent in 2023, 33.2 per cent in 2024 and 23.0 per cent in 2025.
The effect is cumulative. A price increase of 10 per cent in one year does not disappear when the next year’s inflation is calculated. Each year’s higher prices become the base on which subsequent increases are applied. Over nearly two decades, the difference can therefore become much larger than the headline annual inflation rate suggests.
This is why long-term investors often need to think in terms of real returns, rather than simply asking whether an asset has increased in naira value.
The naira’s exchange-rate history adds another layer. The Central Bank of Nigeria reported an average effective official exchange rate of ₦128.65 to the US dollar in 2006. The exchange-rate regime and the value of the naira have changed considerably since then, meaning that the same nominal amount of naira no longer represents the same quantity of foreign currency or purchasing power.
For an investor putting money into shares today, that means a stock trading at hundreds or thousands of naira many years from now should not automatically be interpreted as a spectacular investment return. The company may increase its earnings, pay dividends and grow its market value, but part of any future rise in the share price may simply reflect the lower purchasing power of the naira.
The newly opened Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals public offer provides a useful illustration of how the calculation could look over a much longer period.
The Dangote Refinery IPO opened on September 14, 2026, with 4.1 billion ordinary shares offered at ₦525 each. The minimum subscription is 10 shares, costing ₦5,250, while the total offer is valued at about ₦2.15 trillion. The offer is scheduled to close on October 13, 2026.
An investor who buys 100 shares at ₦525 would therefore commit ₦52,500.
What could those 100 shares be worth in 2046? Nobody can know today. But the mathematics shows why future naira values can become much larger even without an extraordinary real return.
If the shares were worth ₦1,000 each in 2046, the holding would be worth ₦100,000. At ₦2,500 per share, it would be worth ₦250,000. At ₦5,000, it would be worth ₦500,000. At ₦10,000, the same 100 shares would be worth ₦1 million.
Those figures are not forecasts. They simply demonstrate the relationship between the number of shares, the future share price and the naira amount received.
There is another way to look at it. If the ₦52,500 invested in 2026 merely kept pace with an average annual inflation rate of 10 per cent for 20 years, it would need to become about ₦353,000 by 2046 just to have roughly the same purchasing power. At an average inflation rate of 15 per cent, the equivalent would be about ₦858,000. At 20 per cent, it would be about ₦2.0 million.
In other words, a future share price of ₦10,000 may sound enormous compared with the IPO price of ₦525, but what matters in 2046 will be what ₦10,000 can actually buy.
The reverse is also possible. A company can grow sufficiently quickly to generate returns that exceed inflation. If its earnings expand, dividends rise and investors place a higher value on the business, the shareholder can potentially achieve both nominal growth and real wealth creation. But that outcome cannot be guaranteed merely because an investment is held for a long time.
This is also why comparing shares with land, property, foreign currency or other assets solely by looking at what they would be worth today can be misleading. Different investments produce returns in different ways. Shares may provide capital appreciation and dividends; property can produce rental income and appreciation; foreign currency can protect against some forms of naira depreciation but also carries its own risks and does not automatically generate income.
Fidelity Bank’s current market value illustrates the same point from another direction. Nigerian Exchange data showed Fidelity Bank shares closing at ₦19.10 on September 18, 2026, with 63.174 billion shares outstanding. The bank’s share price has also moved within a broad range during the preceding year, demonstrating that even an established listed company’s market value changes over time.
A complete assessment of the investor’s 18-year Fidelity Bank experience would therefore require more information than the figures displayed in the video. It would be necessary to establish the original number of shares, the purchase price, dividends received, bonus shares, rights issues, share adjustments and any other corporate actions. Without those details, the reported ₦25,332.50 cannot be treated as the complete historical return on the investment.
But the broader economic lesson remains clear.
For Nigerians investing ₦50,000, ₦500,000 or ₦5 million today with a 10- or 20-year horizon, the real question is not simply how many naira the investment will be worth when it is eventually sold. It is how much purchasing power those naira will represent at that time.
The Dangote Refinery offer has brought that question back into focus at a moment when millions of naira are being committed to a long-term corporate asset. The Securities and Exchange Commission has advised prospective investors to study the approved prospectus, understand the terms and risks of the offer and use only authorised subscription channels.
The Fidelity Bank experience, meanwhile, provides a reminder of what can happen when an investment is measured only by its nominal naira value. After nearly two decades of inflation and currency depreciation, preserving the original amount of money is not the same as preserving the wealth that money once represented.
For long-term Nigerian investors, the most meaningful number may therefore not be the balance displayed on the statement. It may be what that balance can still buy.
