NSE Commits N100m to Support the Fight against COVID-19

The Nigerian Stock Exchange is pleased to announce that it has committed N100million to support the fight against Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria. N60million out of this sum will be donated to the Capital Market Support Committee for COVID-19 (CMSCC), while the balance N40million will be devoted to the “Masks For All Nigerians” campaign.
The CMSCC is a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) led committee, comprised of the capital market community and set up to galvanize the capital market ecosystem to play an active role in curbing the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria. In addition to its efforts as part of CMSCC, the “Masks For All Nigerians” campaign will see the NSE donate over 100,000 reusable face masks to states most affected by COVID-19. In addition, The Exchange will run an enlightenment program on the safe use of masks on traditional and social media.
This initiative comes on the back of a growing call for the use of masks as an effective measure in slowing the spread of COVID-19. With the increasing body of evidence that the use of masks by the populace could slow the spread of coronavirus, several countries, including the United States of America, Austria, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Canada, and Nigeria to name a few, have adopted this control measure.
Speaking on the initiative, the Chief Executive Officer, NSE, Mr Oscar N. Onyema, OON said, “At the Exchange, we recognize the health and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Nigerians and the need to adopt more proactive steps in stemming the tide.  In line with our tradition of supporting the communities where we operate, we have launched the Masks For All Nigerians campaign to ensure that protective masks get into the hands of citizens in the more vulnerable places.” 
“Through our media enlightenment engagement, we will raise awareness on the proper use of masks, continue to encourage adherence to the guidelines that have been provided by relevant agencies, and emphasize that wearing of masks alone is not enough protective measure against COVID-19. We have also been deliberate with this intervention by patronising local manufacturers in our efforts to support indigenous businesses, who we have mandated to comply with the mask production specifications provided by the Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) and the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC),” Mr Onyema further stated.
On his part, the President of the National Council, NSE, Otunba Abimbola Ogunbanjo said, “We are facing an unprecedented existential threat that requires us to adopt a more collaborative approach in fighting this pandemic especially where social interaction is inevitable. As we work to encourage the use of Personal Protective Equipment through adequate production and distribution of reusable face masks, we call on the capital market ecosystem to support this initiative by wearing a mask when in public settings and donating masks especially to those at the bottom of the pyramid so as to protect lives leading to the reactivation of our economy.”
The Exchange has displayed remarkable resilience during this pandemic and continues to support the fight against COVID-19 in line with the strategic pillars of its Corporate Sustainability and Responsibility (CSR) strategy – community, workplace, marketplace, and environment. The Masks For All Nigerians campaign and the donation of masks will provide immense support to the Government in reaching communities who have hitherto been left vulnerable. The Exchange continues to support remote working and trading; promote market deepening activities; create an enabling regulatory environment for stakeholders; and recognise the efforts of public and private sector players in raising awareness, ramping up testing, and increasing the capacity of the health sector to slow the spread of COVID-19.

Lagos Is A Country

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Known for its traffic snarls and entrepreneurial dynamism, Lagos is a megalopolis with mega-needs.

Nigeria’s smallest state is also it’s most populous. The country’s top economic performer, Lagos is bursting at the seams as more people arrive in search of opportunity, creating demand for roads and electricity, amongst other things.

Long seen as a bastion of the opposition, Lagos has not received the investment that it needs to grow in a well-planned way, despite the fact that it generates more tax revenue per capita than any other Nigerian state.

Lagos’s population swelled to more than 20 million in 2019. This number is projected to double by 2050, and the megacity problems could equally double.

Babajide Sanwo-Olu of President Muhammadu Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC) became governor of Lagos State in May 2019. With Lagos sorely needing solutions to combat its infrastructure problems, he unveiled the Lagos Innovation Master Plan and also announced an N250m ($685,000) tech fund for research and development in the state in December 2019.

The master plan seeks to make Lagos a ‘smart’ city and to provide the foundation for the growing tech sector based in Yaba to grow.

Planning priorities

In his 2019 inauguration speech as Lagos State governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu named transportation, power, health and education as priorities for his term. As part of its plan to increase commuter options, Sanwo-Olu’s government has announced that the first phase of the light rail network will be operational in 2021.

Bids for the long-touted 38km-long 4th Mainland Bridge to connect both island and mainland districts also opened in December 2019. But experts say the government still needs to take innovative approaches to address the major infrastructural challenges.

“For example, sewage will require a decentralised approach focused on empowering the local government system […] and providing community sewers,” says the University of Lagos’s Taibat Lawanson. “Mass transit will require a more centralised approach that is private sector-led, albeit supported with government subsidies.” Transportation Minister and former governor Babatunde Fashola, whose stint as power minister failed to bridge the energy deficit, initiated five independent power projects (IPPs) to boost the power supply to government establishments.

A sixth, 12MW one was switched on at the Lekki Free Trade Zone. Keen to make his own mark, Akinwunmi Ambode set up the Light Up Lagos initiative, which did little to boost the state’s electricity situation.

His successor has announced plans to resuscitate that initiative, beginning with a proposed partnership with Siemens and the expansion of another IPP. More IPPs could emerge, powered by Lagos’s own mini-grid using pipeline gas supply, now that it has discovered oil and gas deposits.

However, despite all its predilections for grandeur, Lagos has no proper sewage, drainage or mass transit systems, triggering complications during floods and traffic surges. Unlike the Pretoria-Gauteng metro service in South Africa, there is no interstate rail connecting the metropolis with satellite towns and the city of Ibadan, 129km away.

There is a running joke that a Lagosian can land in London after a six-hour flight at the same time it takes his neighbour to go across the mega-city on a Friday evening.

Evictions of urban poor

With tony projects like Eko Atlantic adding space to the city for the country’s richest inhabitants, Lagos’s poorer citizens argue that they are being sidelined in the city’s modernisation plans. So far, Sanwo-Olu has followed in the footsteps of his predecessors.

This January, a team of naval personnel and soldiers evicted residents of the popular Tarkwa Bay beach community. It was the latest round of recurring evictions since the 1990 exercise in the shantytown of Maroko, part of what is today’s highbrow Oniru and Lekki neighbourhoods.

The communities provided shelter for low-income earners grappling with survival in the absence of state housing programmes. Lagos has not had an efficient public housing policy since the Lateef Jakande administration (1979-1983).

Jakande, who was also a former housing minister, supervised the building of over 30,000 housing units, mostly low-cost estates. He also initiated a metro line project that was halted by the military government that came to power in the 1983 palace coup, headed by a certain Muhammadu Buhari.

Sanwo-Olu also recently banned the use of the ubiquitous okada motorcycles and tricycles, which rose as stop-gap solutions to the endless traffic jams and dysfunctional mass transit system. This, despite public meetings with representatives of various ride-hailing start-ups.

“Both the federal and Lagos state government since 1999 have governed using a business/neoliberal model, forgetting that over 60% of the population live below the poverty line,” says Taibat Lawanson, associate professor of urban regional planning and co-director of the Centre for Housing and Sustainable Development at the University of Lagos. “The only one urban planning solution that comes to mind in which both poor and middle-class Lagosians in many parts of the city have been able to benefit is the BRT [Bus Rapid Transit] system, though it has been plagued by many challenges.”

“Lagos can’t become a mega-city by violently displacing the poor,” concurs Ugochukwu Ikeakor, a Lagos-based policy analyst. “Very soon Lekki will turn into Apapa [with the same chaos]. All thanks to Dangote refinery. We don’t have a rail line that works, our roads are in a terrible state. Lagos is a dysfunctional city and it’s not the fault of the urban poor.”

The plans for the mega-refinery highlight the need for joined-up planning at the state level so that companies and workers both have the infrastructure they need.

Since the return of democracy in 1999, Lagos has effectively been ruled by the same party – the APC, its current iteration, evolved from the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and Action Congress (AC). Ahmed Bola Tinubu, a political godfather and current APC national leader, won two terms between 1999 and 2007 before supporting a series of protégés as his successors.

Babatunde Fashola, now minister of works and housing, is seen as the brightest of them all. He initiated a series of projects in a bid to keep crime low during his tenure as governor (2007-2015). One publication labelled him ‘the man who tamed Nigeria’s most lawless city’.
But even he fell short in some areas: a $1.2bn, seven-line light rail project originally conceived under Tinubu in the early 2000s and initiated early in Fashola’s second term remains unfinished.

Transport commissioner Frederic Oladeinde says that more alternatives are needed: “Building more roads will not solve our problems because people will continue to buy new cars; the solution to our problems is creating more options.”

Cutting ribbons regardless

Bureaucratic and other hurdles often stop projects from making progress. With his exit already on the cards, Akinwunmi Ambode, who had built a number of overhead bridges and intrastate access roads during his tenure (2015-2019), invited President Muhammadu Buhari to cut the ribbons for the 10-lane road to the international airport and a multi-level transport interchange just after the elections, even though both projects were still under construction.

It was the president’s second visit in a year, after the commissioning of a mega bus terminal, which has scarcely been used since.

Since Fashola’s exit as the state’s chief executive governance standards have slipped. Ahead of the 2015 general elections, party supporters were convinced that if both Lagos and Abuja could be held by the same ruling party for the first time since the return of democracy in 1999 it would be an alignment for accelerated development.

Fashola was named infrastructure minister in Buhari’s cabinet but that has failed to translate into major projects benefiting Lagos.

His gubernatorial successor Ambode’s legacy was tarnished by the spectacular fumbling of sanitation in the mega-city after awarding a multi-billion naira contract to untested company Visionscape.

It was one of a list of unforgivable sins that led party elders to rally the troops around Sanwo-Olu, another Tinubu protégé, at the party’s primaries, leading to the incumbent’s defeat.

Since Ambode lost the governorship primaries in 2018, Visionscape has been forgotten, replaced by the Lagos Waste Management Authority and its Private Sector Participation operators. But the mountain of filth in Lagos will take a while to clean up.

By Eromo Egbejule in Lagos

COVID-19: Nigerian Companies Have Records Of Innovation To Turn Pandemic Challenge To Gold

There is no doubt that the COVID-19 pandemic has proven to be a serious challenge to the global economy, Nigeria inclusive. However, I seriously think that within this challenge, there are opportunities for Nigeria to scale as a nation. The opportunities abound. Such growth will only happen if Nigerian companies and innovators are encouraged to make use of the window of opportunity presented by the crises orchestrated by the pandemic.

Nigeria indeed has the population and human capital capabilities. Beyond population, Nigeria needs a critical ingredient to make use of the chance to succeed presented by this pandemic. Nations like the US, China and India give us a gleam of what such an ingredient should be. These nations are not just known for their huge populations, but for their innovative ideas. Therein lies the answer to Nigeria’s quest to defeating the pandemic and turning it to a thing of blessing in disguise: innovation that is readily supported by the Federal Government.

Instead of looking inward to explore the natural and human resources available to fight the pandemic, the Federal Government seems to be more interested in promoting other countries’ ideas and innovations.

Let us take the issue of face masks, for example. Nigerians were shocked when the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) said Nigeria was exploring the option to import one million face masks from China. I find such plan as preposterous in this era when the government should be creating workable strategies to rescue the Nigerian economy from being asphyxiated. It is said that this is happening at a time when Nigeria is seriously seeking an alternative to crude oil to live on. Worse still, it is happening at a time when millions of Nigerians are set to lose their jobs and other means of livelihood as a result of the harsh economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. By relying on imported face masks from China, Nigeria is inadvertently creating a huge number of jobs in the Chinese economy at the detriment of poor Nigerians.

Simply put, Nigerian policymakers can use face masks as a serious tool to turn around the Nigeria economy for the better. What does it take to produce a face mask? Nothing serious. Believe me when I tell you nothing serious. Nigeria has both the human and natural resources to produce face masks fit enough for local consumption and the export market.

In Ibadan where I live with my children and grandchildren, I can count at least 300 tailors. One sad thing about these tailors is that there is no business for them because COVID-19 has killed the business of tailoring. Nigerians are more concerned about feeding right now than about wearing clothes.

But the government can turn things around for these tailors in particular and the economy in general.  How? The government can organize these tailors into groups, and make them operate in school halls where they will be supplied with constant electricity to enable them to produce these face masks. I am very sure with such a conducive environment, each tailor can make nothing less than N3, 000 on a daily basis from producing face masks.

This arrangement will not benefit these tailors alone. A lot of other Nigerians are going to gain from this simple innovation. Textile and logistics companies to be engaged in supplying the textiles and transporting the finished products will benefit from this innovation, just as the average Nigerian on the street will gain from this, in the form of affordable, locally produced face masks.

If need be, the government can also derive taxes from these locally made products. This simple innovation, in the long run, may help to grow the nation’s GDP and reduce unemployment rates. If Nigeria replicates such a set up in every state, the benefits will be too great to imagine.

I know some people may be concerned about the efficiency of such face masks at preventing COVID-19. This concern is not out of place. After all, NAFDAC said a few days ago that face masks made from cloths are not capable of preventing the virus. This is my problem with every Nigerian agency: they know how to criticize without proffering solution. What is wrong with NAFDAC collaborating with other relevant agencies to train a number of tailors on how to produce an internationally certified face mask against COVID-19? I do not think anything is stopping the agency, except lack of creativity.

Every country is searching for a cure for COVID-19. But look at how many Nigerian professors and research agencies are wasting away. If I can recall very well, Nigeria has agencies and institutes capable of producing globally acceptable herbs or drugs for COVID-19.  Certainly, the Nigeria Natural Medicine Development Agency (NNMDA), the National Institute for Pharmaceutical Research and Development (NIPRID), Nigerian Institute of Medical Research (NIMR), Nigerian Council of Physicians of Natural Medicine (NCPNM) and various pharmacognosy departments in our universities exist for a reason, such as the one presented by COVID-19.

One would have expected the Federal Government to borrow a leaf from the European Commission (EC) and collaborate with the Private Sector Coalition Against Coronavirus (CACOVID) to fund these research agencies and institutes to formulate curative or preventive drugs or herbs for COVID-19. Madagascar, which has looked inward in proffering solutions to her COVID-19 challenge, has shown that it will be easier to get a quicker solution to the pandemic in Africa than elsewhere. Nigeria, like many African countries, is blessed with herbs and human resources capable of solving the COVID-19 pandemic.

How shocked I was to see the Chairman of Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19, Boss Mustapha, a decent and very professional man reportedly saying that the Nigerian government was making plans to import the Madagascar herbs to fight the pandemic in Nigeria! It calls for serious concerns because Madagascar has never hidden the name of the plants used in preparing the herbs from the world. Nigeria surely has such plants in abundance. What is preventing the government to organize researchers of herbal medicines into groups to develop a cure from the herb?

It is obvious that lack of creativity and patriotism is the only cog on the wheel of Nigeria’s fight against COVID-19. As a commentator once said, Nigerians are interested in promoting other nation’s innovations because of kickbacks and returns. It is abhorring to see how we have allowed our quest for self-gratification to overrule that of our national interest.

If you look beyond the public sector, you will see that Nigeria is also blessed with innovative brains doing well in the private sector. There was a time Nigeria used to import bottled water until someone deemed its feet to produce bottled water locally. Today, I have lost count of how many locally produced bottled water companies we have in Nigeria. You will be marvelled by the number of jobs bottled water companies have generated in Nigeria.

At the early stages of Nigeria’s telephony history, Nigerians were fraudulently billed per minute in the telecommunication industry, until Mike Adenuga came in to change the phenomenon in early 2000.  He introduced per-second billing method to save Nigerians from such unnecessary billings orchestrated by foreign-owned firms in Nigeria. Like Adenuga, Aliko Dangote has gone ahead to show Nigerians how creativity can propel Nigeria to be self-sufficient with basic things of life: salt and sugar, just to name a few.

There are many more of such innovative Nigerians doing great things whom the Federal Government can partner with. If I may use a typical homegrown Nigerian group in this technology age as an example of the power of sustained innovation, it will further elucidate my points.

I have been following the innovative ideas of Mr Leo Stan Ekeh, Nigerian’s biggest digital serial entrepreneur and innovator of our time. I have been following his moves because of the interest of my wife, children and grandchildren in anything that has to do with technology.  I must mention here that my second and brilliant son worked for Zinox for few years before he moved with his family to the UK. Also, my stepdaughter worked for his e-commerce company, Konga before she left New York last year to further her studies.

Ekeh led Zinox Group to create and domesticate the first African indigenous computer brand.  It seems easy now. But I can recall that when Ekeh started the African indigenous computer project decades ago, many Africans had only seen computers on the television. The Obasanjo administration was smart enough to recognize the Zinox project and encouraged it to scale.

We know the benefit of that smart move by both Ekeh and the Obasanjo administration today. Many Nigerian homes now have access to computers and other auxiliary technologies. Being the first ICT company from Nigeria to be internationally recognized as an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Zinox has been at the forefront of supplying to the Nigerian market affordable technological solutions, including high-end personal computers (PCs), laptops, power solutions, workstations and now it has even diversified into lifestyle products such as television sets, Home & Kitchen Appliances and other similar products.

Within the Zinox Group, I am told, is a number of tech-driven companies such as TD Africa which has redefined the face of tech distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa, TDiLife which is presently doing the same in the FMCG segment and many others. The Zinox Group is a product of serious innovative thinking which has the capacity to represent Nigeria equitably well anywhere in the world, I must tell you.

As a real successful African father, Ekeh has gone ahead to transfer his innovative acumen to his son, Prince Nnamdi Ekeh – the Co-Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Konga and his colleagues now driving their new-age vision. I am pleased to see that Prince Ekeh and his colleagues have not taken for granted the opportunity given to them by Mr Ekeh. They have simply become the leader of the Nigerian e-commerce space today.  Konga, after its acquisition by Zinox, has in less than three years, emerged as the company to beat in the Nigerian e-commerce business. It is heartwarming to see this indigenous brand is winning the war of owning the Nigerian e-commerce market against multinationals. Like Mr Ekeh would always say“No nation can claim to be truly independent until it has technology independence.’’ This resonates more now that our educational system is shut down because of lack of technology while other smaller countries are using e-learning to educate their children.

Since it was founded, Konga has never relaxed on its oars. Last week, I was thrilled when my grandson, Tobi, told me that Konga was hosting the first virtual live auction in Africa. It looked simple. However, one thing is to have an idea and another is to make it happen. Konga has shown itself to be a company that thinks and actualizes its thinking.

When others in the private sector were making donations whose outcome were difficult to account for, we saw how Zinox and Konga came up with the innovative idea to directly feed over 7,000 vulnerable Nigerian families every day for two weeks during the heat of the lockdown experienced in Lagos, Ogun and FCT.

This is the theme behind this article.

For Nigeria to overcome the COVID challenge and turn it to a blessing, the Federal Government needs to support innovative companies and individuals ready to give it all to fight the war against the pandemic.

In conclusion, Nigeria is blessed with both human and natural resources. The Federal Government needs to tap into these resources to ensure that Nigeria is not only able to fight the pandemic but also it is able to turn the pandemic into a blessing in disguise for Nigerians with the new normal. It is only then, post-CONVID-19, that Nigeria can remain relevant in the committee of nations again.

Ademola Ekun is a public affairs analyst who writes from Benue on the occasion of his 72nd Birthday

Oil Holds Gains Despite Massive Unemployment – Report

OILPRICE.COM

The U.S. Labor Department reported a loss of more than 20 million jobs in the month of April. The unemployment rate surged to 14.7 percent, the highest since the Great Depression. Still, stocks rose. Investors saw positive news after the U.S. and China backed away from trade tensions.

Oil rally may be going too far. Oil prices have doubled in a little more than a week on mounting supply shut-ins and hopes of a demand rebound. But analysts are warning that the newfound optimism is premature. “Even following a gradual resumption of economic activity, demand may remain below the 2019 level for years to come,” Commerzbank analysts said.

IHS Markit: Oil production to fall 17 mb/d in Q2. IHS Markit estimates that global oil production will fall by 17 mb/d in the second quarter, the largest decline in history.

North America cuts 1.7 mb/d. U.S. and Canadian oil production is on track to decline by 1.7 mb/d by the end of June, according to Reuters. “When prices went negative it really accelerated some of the cuts,” Allyson Cutright, director at Rapidan Energy Group, told Reuters.

Vitol says peak demand may arrive sooner. Russell Hardy, the head of oil trading firm Vitol, suggested in an interview with Reuters that the pandemic could accelerate the date of peak demand, due to permanent scars in jet fuel demand and pushes for cleaner air. But he also suggested that today’s downturn will tighten the market in the years ahead due to supply erosion.

Occidental wants to cut debt. Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) has hired investment bank Moelis & Co. to help it trim its $40 billion debt pile. Oxy reported a $2.2 billion loss on Tuesday.

Plastic boom ends. The oil industry has funnelled billions of dollars into plastics in recent years, but a lot of projects are now running into trouble.

Shale drillers hint at fracking restart at $30. Diamondback Energy (NYSE: FANG) and Parsley Energy (NYSE: PE) suggested that if WTI moves up to $30 per barrel, they may resume drilling and completion activities

Suncor cuts dividend by 55 percent. Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU) slashed CAPEX and also cut its dividend by 55 percent.

Offshore still has some interest. The oil majors are cutting spending and shutting in production around the world, but are still committed to investing in large offshore projects in South America.

Can idled wells easily be restarted? On earnings calls, multiple oil executives expressed uncertainty about how quickly and pain-free shuttered oil wells can be restarted. “When you shut in wells, especially for a long period of time, you have a lot of surprises,” Clay Bretches, an executive vice president at Apache Corp., told analysts on an earnings call. “Some of them are good and some of them are bad.”

Middle East oil producers look to renewables. “Solar power is the cheapest kilowatt-hour in the Middle East,” Benjamin Attia, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told Bloomberg. Solar can meet most of the electricity demand growth going forward in much of the Middle East. Globally, renewable deals are still moving forward despite the crisis in energy markets. The IEA said that renewables will be the only source of energy to grow this year. “I’m feeling strangely positive because I’m in renewables. If I was in chemicals or aviation or shipping, then I wouldn’t be,” Mortimer Menzel, a partner at Augusta and Co, a clean energy advisory firm, told the FT.

Devon Energy loses $2.8 billion. Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) lost $2.8 billion in the first quarter and the driller said its second-quarter production would fall by 10,000 bpd.

Nigerian oil revenues vanish. Nigeria’s oil revenues have mostly disappeared, with prices fetched for Nigerian crude falling to $10 per barrel or less. Oil accounts for half of the country’s revenue, and the government is now collecting very little from oil sales. Nigeria has taken out $3.4 billion in loans from the IMF.

Frac sand miners hit hard. Frac sand mines are closing down, laying off workers and cutting output. “The obvious answer,” Blake Gendron, an oilfield analyst with Wolfe Research, told Reuters, “is rapid consolidation.”

Halliburton lays off 1,000 workers. Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) laid off another 1,000 workers this week, which comes weeks after the company furloughed 3,500 workers.

Saudi Arabia raises the price, but keeps a discount. Saudi Arabia raised the price of its Arab Light cargoes to Asia to $5.90 below the benchmark price, a sign that Riyadh is still fighting for market share. But for cargoes to the U.S., the price traded at a premium, as Saudi Arabia wants to avoid confrontation with Washington.

Avon HMO Launches Telemedicine Platform

Leading health maintenance organisation, Avon HMO has launched a telemedicine platform as part of its efforts to alleviate difficulties faced by Nigerians when accessing healthcare due to the impact of COVID-19 on virtually all aspects of public life.

Now, by simply dialling 0700-AVON-TELEDOC you can conveniently consult with doctors via your phone. With an extensive network of diagnostics centres and pharmacies across the country, Nigerians are assured of having access to diagnostics tests and/or medication within their immediate vicinity when prescribed after consultation.

For those who require it, we have also concluded arrangements which make it possible for the medication to be delivered to at their homes by our pharmacy partners.

This is yet another laudable move by the company with a reputation for leveraging technology to solve the country’s healthcare challenges as Avon TeleDoc bridges yet another gap. Through Avon HMO’s new platform, Nigerians have one more option when it comes to accessing healthcare in this challenging period.

Contagion or starvation, the dilemma facing informal workers during the COVID-19 pandemic

Lockdown measures will worsen poverty and vulnerabilities among the world’s two billion informal economy workers, says the International Labour Organization.

COVID-19 lockdown and containment measures threaten to increase relative poverty levels among the world’s informal economy workers by as much as 56 percentage points in low-income countries, says a new briefing paper issued by the International Labour Organization.

In high-income countries, relative poverty levels among informal workers are estimated to increase by 52 percentage points, while in upper-middle-income countries the increase is estimated to be 21 percentage points.

As many as 1.6 billion of the world’s two billion informal economy workers are affected by lockdown and containment measures. Most are working in the hardest-hit sectors or in small units more vulnerable to shocks.

These include workers in accommodation and food services, manufacturing, wholesale and retail, and the more than 500 million farmers producing for the urban market. Women are particularly affected in high-risk sectors, the report says.

In addition, with these workers needing to work to feed their families, COVID-19 containment measures in many countries cannot be implemented successfully. This is endangering governments’ efforts to protect the population and fight the pandemic. It may become a source of social tension in countries with large informal economies, the report says.

More than 75 per cent of total informal employment takes place in businesses of fewer than ten workers, including 45 per cent of independent workers without employees.

With most informal workers having no other means of support, they face an almost unsolvable dilemma: to die from hunger or from the virus, the briefing says. This has been exacerbated by disruptions in food supplies, which has particularly affected those in the informal economy.

The COVID-19 crisis is exacerbating already existing vulnerabilities and inequalities.”

Philippe Marcadent, Chief of the ILO’s INWORK branch

For the world’s 67 million domestic workers, 75 per cent of whom are informal workers, unemployment has become as threatening as the virus itself. Many have not been able to work, whether at the request of their employers or in compliance with lockdowns. Those who do continue to go to work face a high risk of contagion, caring for families in private households. For the 11 million migrant domestic workers the situation is even worse.

“The COVID-19 crisis is exacerbating already existing vulnerabilities and inequalities,” says Philippe Marcadent, Chief of the ILO’s INWORK branch. “Policy responses must ensure that support reaches the workers and enterprises who need it most.”

The countries with the largest informal economies where full lockdowns have been adopted are suffering the most from the consequences of the pandemic. Informal economy workers significantly impacted by lockdown varies from 89 per cent in Latin America and the Arab States to 83 per cent in Africa, 73 per cent in Asia and the Pacific, and 64 per cent in Europe and Central Asia.

Countries need to follow a multi-track strategy that combines several lines of actions relating to both the health and economic impacts of the pandemic, says the ILO.

Among its recommendations, the report highlights the need for policies that reduce the exposure of informal workers to the virus; ensure that those infected have access to health care; provide income and food support to individuals and their families, and prevent damage to the economic fabric of countries.

The impact of COVID-19 on the informal economy

Almost 1.6 billion informal economy workers are significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a 60 per cent decline in their earnings. For those workers, stopping work or working remotely at home is not an option.

Staying home means losing their jobs and, for many, it also means losing their livelihoods.

A World on Lockdown and IMF Relief

The novel coronavirus continued its devastating rampage across the world as a sizable portion of the globe remained quarantined. In the U.S., total unemployment rose to 4.4% in March 2020 and is expected to rise significantly higher to double digits in April.

However, this number does not paint the full story.

The unemployment figures for March were calculated in the four-week period from mid-February to mid-March. Nearly 10 million jobs were lost in the first two weeks of April as a result of the pandemic which points to a significantly higher unemployment rate by the time the April numbers are released.

Certain sectors were particularly affected as demand for most goods such as travel and leisure were hard hit, almost dropping to zero in some cases. U.S. gross domestic product fell by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020, the first negative result since the 1.1% decline in the first quarter of 2014 and the lowest since the negative 8.4% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports were gravely affected; federal spending, however, was up by 1.7%. It is important to note that while the first quarter only had two weeks of the shutdown, it had an outsized impact on the performance of the economy. This points to a potentially worse impact in the second quarter even if the quarantine is lifted shortly.

Although the world’s second-largest economy, China, has restarted after an unprecedented shutdown, there are signs that the economy is struggling to attain pre-COVID-19 levels. Factories are at less than full capacity and tens of millions of workers are out of work. In addition, the Chinese are discovering that overseas demand has slumped considerably.

China’s first-quarter GDP contracted by 6.8%, the first contraction since 1992. Retail sales fell 19% in the first quarter, sales of consumer goods fell 15.8% in March, while online sales of physical goods bucked the trend and rose by 5.9%. While all major industrial enterprises have resumed work and smaller businesses are at 80% capacity, business activity has not yet fully returned to normal due to the dramatic drop in exports.

So far, the IMF has responded to emergency financing requests from various countries. The facility now exceeds USD 15 billion and covers over 50 countries in April, especially in Africa with the largest beneficiaries being Nigeria, Pakistan, South Africa and Egypt.

For Nigeria, the IMF approved a $3.4 billion emergency financial assistance package under the Rapid Financing Instrument. The IMF financial support will help limit the decline in foreign reserves and provide financing to the budget for targeted and temporary spending increases aimed at containing and mitigating the economic impact of the pandemic and of the sharp fall in international oil prices.

The IMF facility would be of immense help as foreign investors who sold their securities in the past month have been unable to repatriate the proceeds as a result of dollar scarcity.

The Federal Government also cut down the budget by N317.5 billion to N10.276 trillion. The crude oil benchmark was also slashed to $30/barrel from $57/barrel, oil production volume was reduced to 1.7mbpd from 2.17mbpd, and the exchange rate was revised to N360/$1 from N305/$1. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) also announced the end of the era of the petrol subsidy.

According to the NNPC, with the current fluctuations in global crude oil prices, the cost of refined products would be determined by market forces going forward.

In addition, the country began the gradual easing of the lockdown imposed in Lagos, Abuja and Ogun effective May 4th citing the heavy economic costs of the 5-week lockdown. As part of the easing process, authorities will enforce an overnight curfew from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. and will require individuals who are out during the day to wear a face mask. There is also a ban on non-essential interstate movements.

Excerpts from Nigeria Macroeconomic Markets Report by Comercio Partners 

COVID-19 and the Informal Economy in Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect in Africa, particularly in the informal economy where 325 million workers make their living. Lockdown measures have significantly impacted their lives, along with the many informal enterprises that are at risk of closure.

Coca-Cola HBC revenue plummets 37% in April with most markets in lockdown

Coca‑Cola HBC AG, a leading consumer products business and strategic partner of The Coca‑Cola Company, today announces its 2020 Q1 trading update.

First-quarter highlights

– All employees safe, customers that are open for business supplied, production and logistics operating

– Strong trading in January and February; weaker results in March as government lockdowns severely impacted the out-of-home channel

– Q1 FX-neutral revenue declined by -1.2%, or -0.5% adjusted for trading days and Bambi1

  • Q1 Volumes increased by 3.1% as good growth YTD February was partly offset by a decline in March. Fewer selling days is estimated to have cost 2.1pp of growth in the quarter (ex Bambi)2
  • FX-neutral revenue per case declined by 4.1% driven by a negative country mix from strong growth in Nigeria following prior-year pricing actions (-2.2pp impact), the discontinuation of Lavazza Coffee (-0.8pp impact) as well as a shift in the channel and pack mix caused by significantly reduced volumes in the out-of-home channel, growth in discounters and supermarkets, and a shift into large-format packs in March
  • Gained or maintained share in the majority of our markets

– FX-neutral revenue growth by segment heavily influenced by the timing and severity of lockdowns

  • Established: -7.2%; volume -5.5% as countries in this segment entered lockdown first and derive a larger proportion of revenues from the out-of-home channel
  • Developing: -2.9%; volume growth of 1.8% was offset by negative pack mix due to lockdown measures and strong growth from organised trade
  • Emerging: +4.8%; volume growth of 8.1% with continued growth in most markets and
    double-digit volume growth in Nigeria which entered lockdown after the quarter-end

– In April, with every market in lockdown, FX-neutral revenue fell -37.2% and volumes -27.3% (ex.Bambi)

– The anticipated combined net impact of FX and raw materials for 2020 unchanged; benefits from lower commodity costs offset weaker FX

– Decisive actions are taken to reduce costs and re-prioritise investments: 2020 discretionary expenditure cut by over €100m vs plan, cash CAPEX cut by over €100m or just under 20% vs plan

– Strong balance sheet and sufficient liquidity to meet all financial commitments as well as to operate and invest in the business

The challenges presented by the Covid-19 pandemic are unprecedented for our business and the communities where we operate. On behalf of all of us at Coca‑Cola HBC, I would like to sincerely thank those working tirelessly to keep us all safe. After a strong start to 2020, March and especially April have been more difficult. I am very proud of how our teams are responding to this crisis, particularly the adaptability, resilience and community spirit our people have demonstrated. The strong performance in January and February ensured that we entered this crisis from a position of real strength with sound business fundamentals and a solid balance sheet. When the pandemic struck we took decisive actions, fully focused on keeping our people safe, our customers served and our communities supported. We are also effectively managing the business for the conditions which will support our performance and ensure we are well-placed to move into the recovery phase when it comes.

Zoran Bogdanovic, Chief Executive Officer of Coca‑Cola HBC AG