As economic growth slowly recovers towards the positive quadrant, political risks in Nigeria are becoming more elevated. Imponderables, unknown variables and the unexpected are becoming more potent and could undermine the economic gains. The institutions for conflict resolution remain weak, divided and above all, lack credibility.
The good news however, is that the economic momentum is enhanced by the repairs to the Forcados and near completion of Escravos pipelines. Combined, these two could add approximately 400,000 barrels of oil exports per day. It will lend further support to a naira which is becoming more vulnerable to a 10% drop in the price of oil to $48pb.
Outline:
- Highlights, the month of May did not blow us all away
- Markets on fire- rally or fake news
- Mid-term macroeconomic performance review: average score
- Risk footprint: political risks elevated, economic risks recessive
Proxies looking good
In this edition of the Lagos Business School (LBS) executive breakfast club, Bismarck Rewane and the FDC Think Tank analyze mid-term macroeconomic performance of the current administration and an economic outlook for Q3 2017.
