The NOIPolls Consumer Confident Index (CCI) report for Q4, 2017 revealed that the CCI increased by 3-points to stand at 70.5-points compared to Q3, 2017 where it stood at 65.5-points. This shows a perceived increase in the level of confidence of consumers on the state of the economy which is mostly communicated through saving and spending patterns.
This further increase in the CCI in Quarter 4, 2017, could be attributed to the increase in economic activities usually experienced towards the end of the year thus, translating to a slight growth in the economy. Additionally, available data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for Q4, 2017 suggests that the economic recovery remains largely on track as the Purchasing Manager’s Index signaled a healthy growth in November 2017.
Similarly, the two independent variables that make up the CCI; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI) both experienced an increase. The PSI experienced an increase of 6.4-points to stand at 50.6 in Q4, 2017; the EI also experienced a minimal increase of 0.9-points to stand at 85.5-points. These are the key highlights from the Q4, 2017 Consumer Confidence Index Survey.
In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country.
Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw a conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria.
This report presents the Q4, 2017 results for the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).
THE NOIPOLLS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI)
The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Q4, 2017 experienced an increase of 3-points to stand at 70.5-points, maintaining a steady rise from the 2.7-points increase in Q3, 2017. This means that an increase in the propensity to spend among the citizens may have catalyzed economic activities within the period.
There are two variables that make up the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI). The Present Situation Index which shows how consumers feel about their current financial situation compared with 1 month ago, experienced an increase of 6.4-points in Q4 2017 to stand at 50.6 when compared to the figure (44.2-points) obtained in Q3, 2017. This represented an increase in the purchasing power within the period in view. The Expectation Index is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future (3 months) financial situation as well as their economic outlook for the country and this index slightly increased by 0.9-points in Q4, 2017.
There are 7 variables that comprise the PSI and EI and they all experienced an increase except for the Expected Total Family Income index which experienced a marginal decrease of 0.4-points.
These are highlighted below:
Current Economic Situation Index- 49.6
The Current Economic Situation Index increased by 3-points in Q4, 2017 to stand at 49.6-points compared to the result obtained in Q3, 2017.
Expectation of the Country’s Economic Situation Index – 95.5
This index also increased by 2-points from 93.5 in Q3, 2017 to 95.5 in Q4 2017, signifying that consumers are hopeful about the country’s economic situation.
Current Employment Condition Index – 61.6
The Current Employment Situation overview showed that the index improved from the 54.6 obtained in Q3, 2017 to 61.6-points in Q4, 2017, representing a 7-point increase in the current economic situation index.
Expected Employment Condition Index – 98.8
This Index slightly increased by 0.8-point to stand at 98.8-points in Q4, 2017.
Current Prices of Goods and Services Index – 40.5
The Current Prices of Goods and Services Index experienced the highest increase of 8.9-points in Q4, 2017 to stand at 40.5-points from the 31.6-points obtained in Q3, 2017. The steady increase in this index in 2017 may imply that consumers perceived a reduction in certain prices of goods and services in the country.
Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index – 82.7
The Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index marginally increased by 0.8-points to stand at 82.7-points in Q4, 2017, meaning that there is a high anticipation among consumers for a future reduction in the prices of goods and services.
Expected Total Family Income Index – 64.9
The Expected Total Family Income Index further declined by 0.4-point to stand at 64.9-points in Q4, 2017 signifying that expectations regarding households’ future financial income declined.
TREND ANALYSIS
Trend analysis revealed that the PSI increased by 6.4-points to stand at 50.6-points in Q4, 2017, while the EI also increased by 0.9-points to stand at 85.5-points in Q4, 2017. These are the two independent variables that make up the CCI and their variances are the main determinants of the overall outcome of the CCI.
In conclusion, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 3-points to stand at 70.5-points in Q4, 2017. As such, it is highly recommended that both local, international and prospective investors pay close attention to these findings, as they serve as leading indicators for the overall economy. When consumers are confident of their futures, their propensity to spend increases which in turn drives higher economic growth, however, if consumers aren’t confident, they tend to save rather than spend and perhaps constrain economic growth.
The CCI is an extremely important leading indicator for investors given its ability to predict consumer-spending patterns. These spending patterns can be useful predictors of everything ranging from gross domestic product (GDP) growth to the effectiveness of monetary policies in combating low unemployment and inflation. The CCI however, is a lagging indicator as the survey doesn’t say what is going to happen, but what has already happened and if it can be expected to continue, therefore, investors are also advised to apply caution as the CCI can change at the time of the release of this report.
