Emerging Markets Outlook in 2019

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A glimpse at key markets within the classification showed that Brazil’s economy slowed in 2018, as industrial action by truckers, as well as political uncertainties from the country’s presidential race, weighed. The outlook for the country is hinged on the delivery of policy actions by the new government.

Similarly, the Russian economy continued on a recovery path as growth in GDP settled at 1.7% in 2018E from 1.5% in 2017. Looking ahead, however, the hike in value-added tax and its consequential impact on consumer demand and business activity could weigh on growth.

Meanwhile, India remained an outperformer after recording strides ranging from amassing the largest gain of any G-20 country in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index to rise to the 58th ranking in the Global Competitiveness Index. Going into 2019, while we expect further growth from the South Asian economy, key downside risks are the forthcoming general elections and increases in policy rates.

Finally, the momentum of the Chinese economy is estimated to slow, as deleveraging efforts seem to be taking a back seat on the need to calm the economy from trade tensions. We expect more expansionary policies to trail the cut in CRR, as authorities seek to inject stimulus into the economy considering that the impact of trade tensions could bite harder in 2019.

 

UNITED CAPITAL RESEARCH

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