Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.01%(year-on-year), in real terms, in the first quarter of 2019. Compared to the first quarter of 2018, which recorded a real GDP growth rate of 1.89%, the Q1 2019 growth rate represented an increase of 0.12% points. However, relative to the preceding quarter (fourth quarter of 2018), the real GDP growth rate declined by –0.38% points.
It is worth noting that general elections were held across the country during the first quarter of 2019 and this may have reflected in the strongest first quarter performance observed since 2015. Aggregate GDP stood at N31,794,085.85 million in nominal terms. This aggregate was higher than in the first quarter of 2018 which recorded N28,438,604.23 million, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 11.80%. The aggregate was, however, lower than in the preceding quarter of N35,230,607.63 million, by –9.75%. The nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2019 was higher than the rate recorded in Q1 2018 by 2.44% points. For further analysis, the Nigerian economy can be classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.
The Oil Sector
In the first quarter of 2019, average daily oil production stood at 1.96million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the average daily production of 1.98mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018 by -0.02mbpd but higher than the fourth quarter 2018 production volume by 0.05mbpd. (Figure2) . The level of oil output during the quarter was the highest recorded over the past year and the second highest since mid-2017.
The real GDP growth in the oil sector was –2.40% (year-on-year) in Q1 2019 indicating a decrease by –16.43% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018. Growth decreased by –0.79% points when compared to Q4 2018 which was –1.62%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 11.60% in Q1 2019. The Oil sector contributed 9.14% to total real GDP in Q1 2019, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2018 but up compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 9.55% and 7.06% respectively.
The Non-Oil Sector
The non-oil sector grew by 2.47% in real terms during the reference quarter. This was 1.72% points higher compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but -0.23% points lower than the fourth quarter of 2018. During the quarter, the sector was driven mainly by Information and communication technology. Other drivers were Agriculture, Transportation and Storage, Trade and Construction. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 90.86% to the nation’s GDP, higher than recorded in the first quarter of 2018 (90.45%) but lower than the fourth quarter of 2018 (92.94%).
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