Q2 2019: All Products Terms Of Trade Index Increased By 1.27%

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Highlights:

Between April and June 2019 (Jan 2018=100): 

  • The All commodity group import index decreased by 0.25% due to the fall in prices of textiles and textile articles, Raw hides and Skin, Boilers Machinery and Appliances.
  • The All commodity group export price index rose by 1.02% due to increases in the prices of Footwear, headgear, Umbrellas, Textiles and Textile articles, Prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits and Vinegar.
  • The All products terms of trade (TOT) index increased by 1.27% due to increases in prices of Footwear, Headgear, Umbrellas, Sun Shade…, Textiles and Textile articles, Prepared foodstuffs…, as well as Base Metals and articles of Base Metals
  • The All region group export index rose by 1.02% mainly due to a rise in export prices to Asia.
  • The All region group import index declined by 0.25% due to decreases in import prices from America and Africa.
  • The All region terms of trade increased by 1.27% due to increased  Trade with Asia, America and Europe
  • Nigeria’s  major trading partners (both imports and exports) in Q2,2019 were India, China, Spain, the United States and the Netherlands
  • The major export  to these countries was crude petroleum and natural gas
  • The major imports from these countries were Motor spirits, Used Vehicles and motor cycles

Terms Of Trade

The terms of trade (TOT) represents the ratio between a country’s export prices and its import prices. The ratio is calculated by dividing the price of the exports by the price of the imports, usually in percentage terms. In this report, the terms of trade is calculated as the value of Nigeria’s exports as a percentage of the value of its imports. An increase in the terms of trade between two periods (or when TOT is greater than 100%) means that the value of exports is increasing relative to the value of imports, and the country can afford more imports for the same value of exports. For example, an increase in the price of oil between two periods (with oil production remaining the same) is likely to increase or improve the terms of trade for Nigeria and vice versa. The TOT is recorded as an index and can be used as an indicator of an economy’s health.

COMMODITY PRICE INDEX APRIL TO JUNE, 2019 

All commodity group import index

In Q2 2019, the All commodity group import index, on average, decreased 0.25%, following a 0.17% decrease from April to May and a drop of 0.08% between May and June.

In May, the decline was mainly attributable to decreases in the prices of Boilers, Machinery and Appliances (-0.77%), Raw Hides and Skin, Leather (-0.55%) and Base metals and articles of Base metals (-0.39%) but partly mitigated by increases in the prices of Vegetable products (1.14%), Pearls, precious and semi-precious stones (1.07%) and Animal and Animal Vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage (0.93%).

In June, the fall was attributable to decreases in the prices of wood and articles of wood (-0.83%), Textiles and Textile Articles (-0.83%) and Prepared foodstuffs (-0.58%). However, this was partly mitigated by increases in the prices of Vegetable products (0.25%), Mineral products (0.20%) and Papermaking material (0.16%).

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All Commodity Group Export Index

The All commodity export index, on average, increased 1.02% following a 0.19% increase in May and a 0.83% increase in June.

The All commodity group export index rose in May due to increases in the prices of footwear, Headgear, Umbrellas (39.3%), Textile and Textile articles (11.3%) and Raw Hides and Skin (9.3%). The increases were, however, partly offset by decreases in the prices of Plastic rubber and articles (-9.4%), Live animals; animal products (-6,8%) and animal and Vegetable fats and oils (-5.3%).

The index for All commodity exports also rose in June due to increases seen in Plastic, rubber and articles (+4.59%), Prepared foodstuffs; beverages (+2.75%) and products of the chemical and Allied Industries (+1.46%). The increases were partly offset by decreases in the prices of footwear, headgear (-15.2%), Raw Hides and Skin (-5.4%) and Textile & Textile articles (-3.8%).

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Terms of Trade by commodity (2018 Jan=100)

The All commodity group terms of trade stood at 102.5 in April, 102.9 in May and 103.8 in June. This represents an increase of 0.36% in May (from April) and 0.9% in June (from May), resulting in an overall increase in the terms of trade by 1.27%  in Q2 2019. The rise was  attributable to increases in the prices  of footwear, headgear, Umbrellas (+24.2%), Textile and Textile articles (+8.3%) and prepared foodstuffs (+7.6%), but was partly offset by decreases in the prices of plastic, rubber (-4.7%), Animal and Vegetable fats (-6.2%) and Live animals; animal products (-6.6%).

All-Region Group Export Index

The All Region group export index, on average, rose by 1.02%, following a (0.19%) increase in May and 0.83 % in June.

In May, the rise in the All-Region group export index was mainly attributable to increases in the prices of export trade to Asia (1.5%) which was, however, partly offset by decreases  in the prices of export trade to America (-0.56%), Africa (-0.32%) and Europe (-0.2%).

In June, the rise in all regions group export index was attributable to increases in trade with Asia (4.56%) and Europe (0.56%). These increases, however, were partly offset by decreases in the prices of export trade to America (-2.63%), Africa (-2.04%) and Oceania (-0.96%).

All-Region Group import index

The All-Region group import index, on average, fell by 0.25%, following a 0.17% decrease in May and 0.08% decrease in June.

The 0.17% decline in the All-Region group import index, in May, was mainly attributed to decreases in the prices of import trade from Oceania (-7.92%), America (-4.35%) and Europe (-0.34%) though the decline was partly mitigated by increases in the prices of import trade from Africa (+2.48%) and Asia(+1.19%).

Similarly, the All-Region group import index declined in June, by 0.08 %, driven by decreases in the prices of import trade from Africa (-3.72%), America (-2.46%) and Asia (-0.60%). The decline was partly mitigated by an increase in the prices of import trade from Oceania (23.78%) and Europe (0.64%).

Terms of Trade by Regions [2018 Jan=100]

The All-Region group terms of trade stood at 102.5 in April, 102.9 in May and 103.8 in June. This represents an increase of 0.36% in May and of 0.9% in June. On average, the terms of trade increased by 1.27%. The increase was a result of the rise in the prices of goods traded with Asia (5.54%), America (3.78%) and Europe (0.06%), but was partly offset by decreases in the prices of goods traded with Oceania (-10.36%) and Africa (-0.98%) during the quarter.

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Merchandise Trade With Top Five Partners By Major Commodities In Q2 2019

A. INDIA

As the largest export market for Nigeria in Q2, 2019, export trade to India accounted for 17.27% (N 793.9 billion) of total exports. The most dominant export commodity to India was crude oil, valued at N724.1 billion, followed by Natural gas, liquefied (worth N60.4 billion), Cashew nuts, in shell (N4.2 billion), Sesamum seeds, whether or not broken (N0.9billion) and Aluminum alloysunwrought (N0.6billion). On the other hand, Nigeria imported motorcycles and cycles, CKD by established manufacturers >50cc<=250cc (N81.9billion), Motorcycles and cycles fitted with auxiliary motor, petrol fuel, capacity >80=<250cc, (N13.5billion), other antibiotics (N10.8billion), Kerosene type jet fuel (N5.3billion) and others from India during the period under review.

B. CHINA

Nigeria’s export trade with China was dominated by Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude which was worth N127.8billion, followed by Natural gas, liquefied (N14.5billion), Propane, liquefied (N3.0billion) and others. In terms of imports, Other machine-tools for working stone, ceramics, concrete, etc, (N37.6billion), Machines for the reception, conversion & transmission or regeneration of voice etc… (N 35.4billion) and motorcycles and cycles, imported CKD by established manufacturers >50cc<=250cc (N29.9billion) were the major imports from China.

C. SPAIN

As with the preceding two major trading partners, Nigeria’s major export to Spain in Q2, 2919 was Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude and this was valued at N476.3billion.This was followed by Natural gas, liquefied worth N67.6 billion, Leather further prepared after tanning valued at N4.2billion and others. During the quarter, Motor Spirit ordinary worth N6.1billion was imported from Spain as were Mixed alkylbenzenes & mixed alkyl naphthalenes, (N5.3billion) and Petroleum bitumen (N3.8billion).

D. THE UNITED STATES

In Q2, 2019, Nigeria exported N349.5billion worth of Crude oil to the United States, together with False beards, eyebrows and eyelashes, etc, of synthetic fibres valued at N0.6billion and Cashew nuts, shelled, worth N0.6 billion. In terms of imports, the main commodities imported were Used Vehicles, with diesel or semidiesel engine, of cylinder capacity >2500cc, accounting for N114.9billion of total imports during the Period under Review. Other products imported were Durum wheat, Seed (N36.7billion), Durum wheat (Not in seeds) (N30.7billion) and Other refrigerated vessels (N27.3billion) among others.

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E. The Netherlands

The largest exported commodity to The Netherlands in Q2 2019 was crude oil (N442.9billion), followed by Other petroleum gases etc in gaseous state (N10.6billion), Dredgers (N6.5billion), Natural gas, liquefied (N6.4billion), Good Fermented Nigerian Cocoa Beans (N3.3billion) and others.  On the other hand, Motor Spirit valued at N255.4billion, Gas oil valued at N59.4billion, Supported catalysts with precious metal or its compounds as the active substance, valued at N4.8billion, Blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis) meat, frozen (N4.5billion) and others were also imported from The Netherlands.

Download Q2 2019 Commodity Price Indices and Terms Of Trade Report

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