Inflation figures for February 2020 released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated to 12.20% YoY (0.79% MoM). The current reading is 9bps ahead of the January 2019 reading, with sustained pressure from the food inflation sub-index (+5bps to 14.90% YoY) being the main driver.
- Food inflation rose by 5 bps to print 14.90% YoY (January 2020: 14.85% YoY)
- Core inflation advanced by 8 bps to 9.43 % YoY (January 2020: 9.35% YoY)
- Urban inflation rose by 7 bps to 12.85% YoY. Similarly, Rural inflation climbed by 6 bps 11.61% YoY
All Item Index
The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 12.20 percent (year-on-year) in February 2020. This is 0.07 percent points higher than the rate recorded in January 2020 (12.13) percent.
Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.
On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.79 percent in February 2020. This is 0.08 percent rate lower than the rate recorded in January 2020 (0.87) percent.
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending February 2020 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.54 percent, showing 0.08 percent point from 11.46 percent recorded in January 2020.
The urban inflation rate increased by 12.85 percent (year-on-year) in February 2020 from 12.78 percent recorded in January 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 11.61 percent in February 2020 from 11.54 percent in January 2020.
On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.82 percent in February 2020, up by 0.10 from 0.92 percent recorded in January 2020, while the rural index also rose by 0.76 percent in February 2020, down by 0.07 from the rate recorded in January 2020 (0.83) percent.
The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 12.03 percent in February 2020. This is higher than 11.92 percent reported in January 2020, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in February 2020 is 11.09 percent compared to 11.04 percent recorded in January 2020.
The composite food index rose by 14.90 percent in February 2020 compared to 14.85 percent in January 2020.
This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and Cereals, Fish, Meat, Vegetables, and Oils and fats.
On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 0.87 percent in February 2020, down by 0.12 percent points from 0.99 percent recorded in January 2020.
The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending February 2020 over the previous twelve-month average was 13.98 percent, 0.12 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in January 2020 (13.86) percent.
All Items Less Farm Produce
The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 9.43 percent in February 2020, up by 0.08 percent when compared with 9.35 percent recorded in January 2020.
On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.73 percent in February 2020. This was down by 0.09 percent when compared with 0.82 percent recorded in January 2020.
The highest increases were recorded in prices of Pharmaceutical products, Non-durable household goods, Catering services, Passenger transport by air, Repair of furniture, Maintenance, and repair of personal transport equipment, Water supply, carpet, and other floor coverings, Major household appliances, Dental services, Hospital Services, and Vehicle spare parts.
The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.09 percent for the twelve-month period ending February 2020; this is 0.02 percent points lower than 9.11 percent recorded in January 2020.
In analyzing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.
All Items Inflation
In February 2020, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Bauchi (14.47%), Niger (14.06%) and Plateau (13.98%), while Borno (10.46%), Abuja (9.68%) and Kwara (9.59%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.
On month on month basis, however, February 2020 all items inflation was highest in Kano (1.59%), Benue (1.55%) and Taraba (1.53%), while Ondo, Ogun, Nasarawa, Kebbi, Bauchi, Anambra all recorded price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level or negative inflation rate).
In February 2020, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Sokoto (17.12%), Plateau (16.99%) and Gombe (16.96%), while Nasarawa (13.50%), Bauchi /Katsina (13.04%) and Bayelsa (11.89%) recorded the slowest rise.
On month on month basis, however, February 2020 food inflation was highest in Benue (2.38%), Osun (2.36%) and Rivers (1.77%), while Abuja, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Katsina, Kebbi, Nasarawa, Ogun and Ondo all recorded price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).
Kindly click the link for the full report from the NBS.